Japan has not set a specific deadline for the establishment of a "zero nuclear power" target

The Japanese government introduced the draft "Energy and Environment Strategy for Innovation" on September 6th, proposing the goal of "get out of relying on nuclear power as soon as possible". Together with "enlargement of green energy" and "stable supply of energy," the Japanese government will form the three cores of Japan's future energy strategy. The draft stipulates that “zero nuclear power” be achieved in two phases, and the proportion of nuclear power generation in the first phase to 2030 will be less than 15%, and thereafter the nuclear power plant will be scrapped. Japan currently has 50 nuclear reactors. If it strictly follows the service life of "waste heaps," and without adding new nuclear power plants, Japan will bid farewell to nuclear power plants around the latest 40 years, that is, around 2050, and truly usher in "zero nuclear power." "era. The draft "Innovative Energy and Environmental Strategy" pointed out that if no new nuclear power plants are added, the proportion of nuclear power generation will be reduced to 15% by 2030 according to the 40-year service life of nuclear power plants. However, the draft does not specify the specific time limit for achieving zero nuclear power.

The Democratic Party's Energy Environment Investigation Committee also submitted a research report on the same day, suggesting that zero-nuclear power plants be realized in the “21st Century 30s”.

According to public opinion surveys, nearly 90% of Japanese nationals support “nuclear zero power” and some have filed lawsuits on the shutdown of Daineng nuclear power plant. However, the Japanese government estimates that if the existing nuclear power plant is abolished, the electricity bill will be doubled, which will have a great impact on economic production and national life. If the draft content is to become a government decision, it is not a smooth road.

Proposes to abolish the nuclear power government draft The nuclear power plant accident caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake of March 11th in 2011 made people realize that nuclear power is on the wrong side, which prompted European countries to adopt the policy of abolishing nuclear power. The country concerned has also increased its focus on green energy such as solar energy, wind power, and geothermal energy. It has also promoted the realization of zero nuclear power on the agenda under the influence of public opinion.

The results of the National Energy Policy National People’s Congress discussion showed that Japanese people’s support for “nuclear zero power” totaled as high as 89.6%. Among them, 81% of the opinions that advocate the immediate abolition of nuclear power plants are required, and 8.6% require gradual realization of the goal of “zero nuclear power” in stages.

At the end of August, Japan’s Minister of State for National Strategy Furukawa Yuanji expressed his intention to summarize the draft new energy environment strategy as soon as possible at the press conference, stating that “the energy structure that has been relying on nuclear power in the future is not ideal” and that efforts should be made to achieve the goal of “zero nuclear power”.

In explaining the reason for the pursuit of "zero nuclear power," Furukawa said that due to the Fukushima nuclear accident, some people have so far been forced to leave their homes and some places are uninhabitable, so we must avoid this situation from happening again. However, Furukawa also stated that achieving "zero nuclear power" cannot be accomplished overnight.

The Japanese government drafted a new energy strategy called “Innovative Energy and Environmental Strategy” on the 6th. The draft proposes to “get rid of dependence on nuclear power as soon as possible” and also proposes two major policies “enlarging green energy” and achieving “a stable supply of energy”. These three points will form the core of Japan’s future energy strategy.

The draft stipulates that “nuclear zero power” be achieved in two phases. From the first phase to 2030, the proportion of nuclear power generation is less than 15%. Since then, efforts have been made to abolish the nuclear power plant, but the specific time to achieve zero nuclear power has not been specified.

The draft lists three principles for nuclear power plants: one is that no new nuclear power plants will be built; the other is that nuclear power plants meeting the new safety standards can operate for up to 40 years; and third, if the demand for nuclear power decreases with the widespread use of other energy sources, even if Nuclear power plants operating for less than 40 years may also consider stopping.

The draft stipulates that it is necessary to restart the suspended nuclear power plant after confirming safety and necessity. The draft also includes the stoppage of the "Manjusri" fast breeder reactor and discussions on the abolition of the Atomic Energy Commission.

There will be 50 nuclear reactors in Japan at the latest or will be implemented by 2050. In strict accordance with the “waste heap” of service life, the proportion of nuclear power generation will be reduced to 15% by 2030, and the latest 40 years without the addition of nuclear power plants. After 2050, Japan will bid farewell to nuclear power plants.

The ruling Democratic Energy and Environment Investigation Committee also put forward proposals on the 6th, requesting the government to implement zero-nuclear power plants in the 1930s and strictly enforce the regulations that the operation time of nuclear power plants should not exceed 40 years. In addition, it also requires a thorough revision of the recycling of nuclear waste. Policy.

On the morning of the 7th, the former chairman of the Democratic Party’s Policy Commissioner Masahiro Maehara went to the Prime Minister’s residence and submitted a survey proposal to Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko, requesting “investment in all policy resources to make 'nuclear zero' possible in the 1930s. The Japanese government plans to combine the proposal of the Democratic Party to summarize the draft this week and decide on a formal plan at the Cabinet meeting. "Zero nuclear power" is expected to become the official decision of Japan.

In addition, the Japanese abolition of nuclear power organizations held a meeting on the 4th in the House of Representatives’ Assembly Hall to announce the basic bill to achieve the goal of abolishing nuclear power as early as possible by 2025.

The Basic Act points out that nuclear power generation has huge potential dangers, and there are also problems with radioactive waste. It is not an energy form that can ensure reliability and safety. The organization is advisor to Ujimori Kenji, president of the former Japan Lawyers Association, and Sakata Tsuna, a report writer.

The organization strives to submit the bill during the current parliament and will appeal to various factions for approval. Former Prime Minister Naoto Kan and about 40 MPs attended the meeting. Naoto Kan said on the above-mentioned bill: "To fully support its purpose and content."

Realize the huge cost of “zero nuclear power” Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has assessed the issues and impacts that the “zero nuclear power” will face in the future. The evaluation document pointed out that with the withdrawal from the field of nuclear power, the Japanese government will lack room for maneuver in LNG and crude oil procurement negotiations, not only electricity, gas and kerosene charges may increase.

According to the assessment, if “zero nuclear power” is achieved in 2030, household light and heat expenses, including electricity bills, will reach up to 32,243 yen (approximately RMB 2,600) per month, which is approximately the actual expenditure of 16,900 yen in 2010. double. Even if the plan to reduce the proportion of nuclear power to 15% is adopted in 2030, the average monthly electricity bill will also increase to 29,290 yen.

According to the Japanese government’s estimation, the expansion of the use of renewable energy such as solar energy instead of nuclear power plants requires huge investments. To achieve zero nuclear power by 2030, the amount of renewable energy generated must increase from 106 billion kWh in 2010 to 350 billion kWh. If the proportion of nuclear power is reduced to 15% by 2030, the amount of renewable energy generated must be increased to 300 billion kwh. The amount of investment needed to achieve these goals is expected to be 50 trillion yen and 40 trillion yen (approximately RMB 4 trillion and 3.6 trillion yuan, respectively).

The Japanese government held a meeting on the energy environment on the 4th. Minister of Industry and Commerce Yukio Nori, in addition to introducing the huge cost of capital for "zero nuclear power," raised many other challenges. After the nuclear fuel recycling policy is abolished, the spent fuel storage station may It is difficult to maintain; closure of nuclear power plants will result in the loss of nuclear energy technical personnel; there are concerns about the follow-up development of nuclear power plant related areas.

The nuclear power policy will become the focus of the general election. “Please ask God to send divine difficulties.” Once the state has relied on nuclear power plants, it will have to pay a huge cost and face resistance from many parties.

At present, the proportion of Japan’s nuclear power generation is about 30%. To implement “nuclear zero power”, it will first receive strong opposition from the industry.

Many Japanese companies have turned their sights on Japan's high electricity prices and high wages and have turned their sights to low-cost Southeast Asian countries. If abolishing nuclear power and pushing up tariffs will further accelerate the pace of Japanese companies’ “escape” from their homeland, creating a hollow domestic industry. "Increase the unemployment rate. High electricity prices will also increase the national burden of life. The Japanese government has made difficult choices between choosing "long-term pain" or "short pain."

Some analysts said that in the next House election, the party’s nuclear power policy will be one of the focuses of competition. The Democratic Party that has vigorously promoted nuclear power has instead become the leader in the abolition of nuclear power. It is not clear whether this is in response to the elections, caters to public opinion, or whether it has indeed prepared for the "discontinuity."

However, it is certain that the abolition of nuclear power will not be a smooth road. The next step is to look at how the Japanese government took the first step and increased the draft "not shrunk" to the government's decision-making.

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