China's electronic information manufacturing energy inflection point will come

Energy consumption is a key indicator that determines the quality of manufacturing development. Although China's electronic information manufacturing industry is not a high-energy-consuming industry, its energy consumption level remains high compared with developed countries. At present, the United States, Japan, and other developed countries have entered the negative growth phase of energy consumption in electronic information manufacturing, while China will also be in a period of rising total energy consumption, which highlights the development mode and industrial structure of China's electronic information manufacturing industry. The gap between the technology level and the developed countries. The Citi think-tank believes that an in-depth analysis of the differences in the development model and development quality of the electronic information manufacturing industry between China and the developed countries will identify deep-seated reasons for the increasing energy consumption in China's electronics manufacturing industry, and will actively adopt and eliminate backward production capacity and upgrade technical equipment. Regulating industry management and promoting the healthy development of green manufacturing are the key to promoting the industry to complete the major tasks of energy saving and emission reduction during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period and achieve the fundamental goal of transformation and upgrading.

I. Focus on energy consumption in China's electronic information manufacturing industry The total energy consumption in China's electronic information manufacturing industry has been increasing year by year, from 9.506 million tons of standard coal in 1995 to 41.55 million tons of standard coal in 2010, accounting for the proportion of industrial energy consumption. The 0.72% in 1995 rose to 1.35% in 2010. Energy consumption presents the following characteristics:

(1) The rapid growth of industry scale and the large scale of energy consumption during the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” and “Tenth Five-Year Plan” period. During the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” period, the energy consumption of China's electronic information manufacturing industry increased greatly, with an average annual growth rate of 16.8%. This is mainly due to the fact that color TVs and computer products have entered a period of maturity, large-scale production processes are relatively complete, and market demand has grown at a rapid rate. China’s electronic information manufacturing industry to seize this opportunity, on the one hand to actively undertake the transfer of the international manufacturing sector, on the other hand vigorously develop domestic enterprises, the rapid growth of color TV and computer product output, the average annual growth rate of nearly 25% and 50%, respectively, Rapidly spurring the growth of industry scale also promotes a rapid increase in energy consumption. The cause of energy consumption growth during the "10th Five-Year Plan" period is similar to that of the "Ninth Five-Year Plan" period. Although it suffered from the impact of the US cyber bubble crisis in the early period, the growth rate of China's electronic information manufacturing industry has declined, but along with the maturity of mobile communication networks, The development of mobile phones has become a key product that drives the rapid growth of the industry. The industrial chain is becoming more and more perfect and the market demand is constantly rising. The average annual growth rate of China's mobile phone production from 2000 to 2005 has exceeded 50%, which directly leads to a rapid increase in energy consumption.

(II) The growth rate of industrial scale has become increasingly stable, and the growth rate of energy consumption has slowed down during the “11th Five-Year Plan”. After entering the “11th Five-Year Plan”, the market demand for color TVs, mobile phones, computers and other complete machine products has stabilized, 2006— In 2010, the average annual growth rate of the global mobile phone market was only 8%, and it no longer has the ability to drive the rapid growth of China's electronic information manufacturing industry. The new growth point is still under cultivation. Combined with the impact of the international financial crisis, the industrial scale has entered a period of steady growth. Compared with the average annual growth rate of 25.6% during the “10th Five-Year Plan” period, the average annual growth rate of industrial added value during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period is only 15.9%, and its energy consumption growth is bound to slow down.

(3) The rapid development of basic industries such as solar photovoltaics has given some boost to the overall increase in industrial energy consumption. It is worth noting that although the overall growth rate has slowed down, the energy consumption represented by solar photovoltaics is relatively low. The growth of the high electronic infrastructure industry is more prominent. In 2010, the electronic device industry achieved a total sales value of 969.04 billion yuan, which was 13.5 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of the industry (25.5%). The accumulated investment was 166.1 billion yuan, an increase of 57.5% year-on-year, and an increase of 54.7 percentage points from 2009. Among them, the investment growth of optoelectronic devices and electric light sources reached 75.5% and 67.1%, respectively. This, of course, is conducive to driving the growth of the industry, but it also contributes to the continuous increase in the absolute value of production energy consumption. It is expected that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, under the dual effects of policies and market demand, the basic industry will still have room for growth. If no effective energy-saving measures are adopted, the total energy consumption will continue to grow.

Second, the energy consumption of developed countries' electronic information manufacturing industries has shown a steady negative growth. Along with the deepening of economic globalization, the electronic information manufacturing industry in developed countries has undergone a new round of major industrial restructuring, focusing on the development of low energy consumption and consumables. Small, high-value-added knowledge-technology-intensive industries maintain control over the high-end segments of the labor-intensive industries such as brands, marketing, and product design, while placing labor-intensive industries and low-end parts of knowledge-intensive industries The scale has been transferred to newly industrialized countries and regions, and the adjustment of the industrial structure has been achieved through the international transfer of industries and the negative growth of energy consumption in the electronic information manufacturing industry has been realized.

The reasons for the negative growth of energy consumption in the electronic information manufacturing industry in developed countries are mainly concentrated on the following aspects:

(1) Decreased manufacturing sector and continuous decline in energy consumption Since the 21st century, the pace of global industrial transfer has been accelerating. Most electronic information manufacturing companies in developed countries have shifted their production bases to regions with lower labor costs, and domestic manufacturing links have been relatively reduced. Typical enterprises If IBM sells its entire PC manufacturing industry, it will be transformed into an IT service provider. Japan's electrical and electronic product manufacturers have also gradually shifted manufacturing links to China, and the total industrial energy consumption has also been reduced. On the other hand, since the “cyber bubble” crisis in 2000, while the industry suffered losses, it also prompted developed countries to realize the importance of building next-generation networks and the development of information service applications. Google, Apple and other emerging forces have risen. It has become the backbone of the US electronic information industry. Although the industry continues to maintain a relatively large scale, energy consumption has gradually declined. In 2006, the output value of electronic products in the United States was 270 billion US dollars, compared with 277.6 billion US dollars in 2002, the average annual negative growth rate reached 0.8%, and the average annual negative growth rate of energy consumption reached 10%. The inflection point of the energy consumption of electronic information manufacturing industry in the United States appeared in the first five years of the 21st century. At this time, China is gradually becoming the world's leading electronic product manufacturing base and its energy consumption is rising.

(II) The industrial structure tends to be stable, and the energy consumption shows a weak negative growth. On the one hand, the industrial structure of the electronic information manufacturing industry in developed countries has been relatively stable, and the improvement of energy-saving technologies in the production process has reached a mature stage. There will be no major fluctuations in energy consumption in the absence of new breakthroughs in the transfer of manufacturing processes. On the other hand, due to the impact of the financial crisis, the United States, Europe, etc. have re-emphasized the fundamental role of manufacturing, proposed a "re-industrialization" strategy, pushed the high-end manufacturing industry, and oriented the current manufacturing scale to high value-added production. Moderately expanded. It is expected that in the longer period of time in the future, the scale of electronic information manufacturing industry in developed countries will maintain steady growth at a low speed, and energy consumption will show a weak negative growth.

Third, the deep-seated reasons that affect the energy consumption of China's electronic information manufacturing industry With the development of social economy, the energy consumption of electronic information manufacturing industry has risen first with a clear trend. After experience accumulation and technological progress, the production efficiency has been continuously improved and energy consumption has increased. Declining, then the rising trend of energy consumption tends to ease and turn a corner. However, this increase in production efficiency and reduction in energy consumption are not unlimited and will eventually reach a certain bottom line. At present, China really needs to dig deeper. It is that developed countries have already emerged energy inflection points and steadily entered a period of negative growth in energy consumption, while China is still at a deeper level in terms of total energy consumption and rising speed. This is also one of the key tasks to promote China’s electronic information manufacturing industry to become stronger and stronger during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period. We need to analyze the development model, industrial structure, and technical level.

(I) Disparity in development model In 2010, China's electronic information manufacturing industry consumed an average of 0.05 tons of standard coal per 10,000 US dollars of output value. In the same period, the US electronic information manufacturing industry averaged 0.03 tons of standard coal per 10,000 US dollars of output value. This is mainly due to the fact that China's electronic information manufacturing industry has a weak foundation and poor foundation, and has to choose an export-oriented development path that mainly involves the introduction of foreign investment, the transfer of manufacturing industries, and the export of processing. In the long-term development, the expansion is mainly based on scale. Even in the current development of emerging industries such as solar photovoltaics, there is a tendency to seek scale, quantity, and production value. There is a mismatch between production energy consumption and development quality. The problem arises. Therefore, from quantitative development based on scale expansion to quality-based development based on efficiency improvement, it is the first step to narrow the gap between China's and developed countries' electronic information manufacturing energy consumption and gradually reduce the energy consumption of China's electronic information manufacturing industry. task.

(II) Urgent need to upgrade the industrial structure The energy consumption in the production process will decline with the upgrading of the industrial structure. The scale and energy utilization efficiency of key high-energy-consuming industries will be controlled, which can effectively reduce energy consumption. China's electronic information manufacturing industry is dominated by processing and assembly. The manufacture of electronic materials, electronic components, various types of equipment, and machine production is the main part of energy consumption. Among them, electronic vacuum devices, optical power supplies, printed circuit boards, information chemistry materials, fiber optic cables, and other subdivisions consume more energy than the industry average. Therefore, the industrial structure of China's electronic information manufacturing industry urgently needs to extend to links with high added value and low energy consumption, such as integrated circuits, liquid crystal panels, key components, and electronic equipment. The adjustment of the international division of labor will promote the reduction of energy consumption.

(III) The level of technology needs to be improved In the production process of electronic information manufacturing enterprises, as the output increases or the production process repeats, the consumption of unit products or output values ​​will show regular changes, reflecting the accumulation of experience and technological progress. The number of small and medium-sized enterprises in China's electronic information industry accounts for a relatively high proportion. Some enterprises have relatively backward production technologies or processes, and there are a large number of high-energy-consuming equipment and low energy efficiency. Take the electronic industrial furnace as an example. At present, China's electronic information manufacturing industry has a total of more than 30,000 industrial furnaces, accounting for 1/3 of the energy consumption of the entire industry, but its thermal efficiency is mostly low, and the energy efficiency gap with the international advanced level is close to 50%. Seriously affect the reduction of energy consumption. Therefore, only by strengthening the ability to innovate and improving the technological level can we fundamentally solve the energy consumption problem in China's electronic information manufacturing industry.

IV. Pushing China's electronic information manufacturing industry to save energy and reduce consumption During the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, China’s electronic information manufacturing industry maintained a growth rate of over 15%, and the growth rate of energy consumption has been declining year by year. Energy consumption has increased in 2010. The rate is about 2%, which is lower than the average energy consumption growth rate of 9% during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period. Considering that industrial structure adjustment and upgrading, industrial continuous intensification, and energy consumption per unit of industrial value will drop, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the energy inflection point of China's electronic information manufacturing industry is expected to come. In order to speed up its arrival, electronic information manufacturing industry should focus on solving the following problems:

(I) Promoting the upgrading of industrial structure, eliminating backward production capacity Energy consumption will decline with the upgrading of industrial structure, control the scale and energy efficiency of key high-energy-consuming industries, and can effectively reduce energy consumption. To ensure the steady growth of key industries such as computers, electronic components and audio-visual products, actively promote the transformation of the color TV industry and the development of flat-panel industries; phase out high-energy and low-tech products, and gradually eliminate high energy consumption and high pollution of electric vacuum devices and electronic chemical materials. The backward production capacity in the industry has accelerated the development of pollution-free, environmentally-friendly basic components and key materials, and supported new electronic material manufacturers such as power electronics and photovoltaic materials to develop new products, extend the industrial chain, and continue to shift to the top of the industrial chain; The method of industry introduction, fostering the innovation capability of its own industry, and continuously improving the energy efficiency of production.

(II) Transforming technical equipment and improving industry energy efficiency level Focus on the key pollution industries such as semiconductor manufacturing industry, printed circuit board industry, and electronic chemical materials, with core electronic devices, high-end general-purpose chips and basic software products, and very large-scale integrated circuit manufacturing equipment Relying on major projects such as "sets of processes" and upgrading the technological level, the backward production capacity, process equipment and technical equipment in the industry will be phased out. In particular, the electronic industrial furnace and kiln will be reconstructed to improve energy efficiency. At the same time, it is necessary to improve the energy-saving and environmental protection index system for electronic information manufacturing, and gradually establish a monitoring system for energy-saving and emission reduction in key industries or enterprises.

(3) Regulate industry management and help the orderly development of industries To establish a sound market access system and improve industry access standards for electronic materials or electronic components industries with high energy consumption. Released energy-saving technology and product equipment guide catalogs to promote the elimination of backward high energy-consuming equipment. By formulating industrial policies, we will accelerate the elimination of high-energy-consuming, high-pollution enterprises and outdated production processes and technologies, promote the merger and reorganization of large-scale enterprises and other backward companies, and promote effective internal integration. Guiding local governments to resolutely curb low-level and redundant construction and avoid vicious competition from the market.

(D) Promote green manufacturing and ensure the healthy development of the industry emphasizes "source control", "process control" and "end-to-end governance", and build a green development model for the whole life cycle of products. Build industrial green development technical support and public service platforms, and strengthen the research and development of energy-saving clean production technologies and processes. Based on the characteristics of various industries, an environmental impact assessment system and an energy efficiency standard system were established. Improve the standards and testing levels of low-carbon and environmentally friendly electronic products, and reduce the use and emissions of toxic and hazardous substances.

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