With the formal entry into force of the Paris Agreement, the development of new energy and clean energy has become a general trend. Photovoltaic (PV) is rapidly applied as universal clean energy, and 2017 global installed capacity will enter the 100 GW mark. The research institute GTM report pointed out that in 2017, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in 8 countries will exceed 1 GW, and by 2018 it will increase to 13. According to the “13th Five-Year Plan†of China’s national energy development, China’s non-fossil energy will account for more than 15% of total primary energy consumption by 2020. The "Revolution Strategy in Energy Production and Consumption (2016-2030)" promulgated by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau states that by 2030, non-fossil energy will account for 50% of the total electricity generation, and by 2050 it will account for 70% of the total electricity -80 %, there is still much room for improvement compared to the current level. In 2017, China's PV new installed capacity reached a record high of nearly 50 GW, but in the first three quarters, the proportion of photovoltaic power generation was only 1.8%. According to the new calculation of CITIC, China's PV installation capacity may reach 2,600 GW in 2030, which has great potential for development. China's PV manufacturing companies currently occupy an overwhelming advantage in terms of technology and cost. Under the expectations of a clear development, leading companies have announced production or expansion.
Structural overcapacity pushes forward healthy development of the industry
2017 was a year of significant expansion of the entire PV industry chain. According to the public figures, in terms of polysilicon materials, Tongwei will build a new production capacity of 100,000 tons in Leshan and Baotou, and GCL-Poly will have an expansion plan of 40,000-60,000 tons in Xinjiang. New hopes to have an expansion plan of 100,000 tons in Xinjiang; On the wafer and battery side, single-crystal enterprises represented by Longji, Zhonghuan, Tongwei, Rongde, Beijing Express, and Oriental Sunrise also announced large-scale expansion. Some people think that 2018 will be a year in which the production capacity of the entire industrial chain is seriously over-abundant. We believe that a modest overcapacity will be conducive to market competition, and in the end it will be a company that has the dual advantage of quality and cost.
1. The actual output data is much lower than the planned production capacity
The expansion of production of major leading corporate officials does not necessarily result in the final landing. Its publicity is more to win the favor of the capital market, rational photovoltaic companies will control the rhythm of the market, especially the single crystal silicon and battery terminals, Due to the lack of production capacity of high-purity polysilicon raw materials, its output is far from the huge production capacity announced. Combining the expansion data released by various major manufacturers, it is expected that by the end of 2017, the domestic single-crystal wafer production capacity will be 35-40 GW. According to the new estimation of CITIC, the output is only about 25 GW.
2. Maintain adequate supply growth and beware of structural overcapacity
The photovoltaic industry exists in a fully competitive marketization mechanism, and the survival of the fittest accompanies the development cycle of the entire industry. From the analysis of the development history of polysilicon, the price of polysilicon was fired to more than US$500/kg before and after 2007. Several hundred companies across the country announced that they had launched polysilicon. At that time, more than 50 were actually launched. However, after the winter, only the survivors survived. There are seven companies in this seven-plus-million-plus polysilicon enterprises that have mastered the modified Siemens closed-cycle technology and have grown in energy conservation, cost reduction and cost reduction, and have become the main suppliers of polysilicon in the world. Photovoltaic industry has great potential for development. Under the condition of rapid growth in demand year after year, the growth of supply must be higher than the increase in demand. Proper excesses allow low-end production capacity to exit the market, and full competition is conducive to industry progress.
3, high purity, high efficiency, cost-effective products are scarce, high quality products are still in short supply in 2018
High quality, differentiation, and low cost are the weights of any product to maintain its market competitiveness. In the polysilicon material end, taking the lead GCL-Poly as an example, according to the announcement of its Xuzhou base electronic grade polysilicon has been mass production, Xinjiang polysilicon will fully meet the CCz continuous Czochralski single crystal and N-type single crystal material requirements. We predict that after the polysilicon production capacity is partially released in the second half of 2018, it will be able to satisfy the CCz silicon material for continuous straight-pull single crystals and the silicon material that can only meet the demand for ingots, and the price gap will widen to 10,000 yuan/ton or more. High quality silicon materials will still be in short supply. In addition, GCL-Poly's comprehensive transformation of the traditional mortar cutting at the wafer end will double the capacity of the diamond wire cutting line at the end of the year. The black silicon technology supporting the diamond wire will significantly increase the efficiency of the crystalline silicon product and lower the cost. The production capacity will be released quickly to respond. Current and full orders for the first half of 2018. With respect to the single path of Longji and Central, GCL-Poly, which adheres to the development of double lines, is leading the development of single-crystal products, and at the same time that Poly is leading the drive to reduce costs and increase efficiency of the entire industry chain. Participate in stocks and realize single-crystal technology.
4, backward production capacity gradually introduced the market, Matthew effect will show
For polysilicon, the integrated power consumption is higher than 80-100/kg. The production capacity will be withdrawn from the market; at the crystal terminal, old crystal ingot furnaces below 600 kg, single crystal furnaces that cannot meet the requirements of continuous direct drawing will be eliminated; At the slicing end, the backward sand cutting capacity will completely withdraw from the market in mid 2018. It is difficult for a single polycrystalline enterprise that cannot reconstruct or have too much time to survive. Even if the diamond wire cutting transformation is completed, the quality is unstable and the technology is not mature. Silicon wafer companies will also face great market pressure; on the battery module side, a low degree of automation of the production line will not be able to provide efficient and low-cost photovoltaic products.
Rapid decline in the cost of the entire industry chain outperforms the market
The photovoltaic market in China has been gradually erupted since 2013, and the total newly installed capacity of the year is higher than expected at the beginning of the year. According to the statistics of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in early 2016, 18 GW of new installed capacity of domestic PV is forecasted, while actual installed capacity is 34.5 GW; at the beginning of 2017, 20-30 GW of new installed capacity of domestic PV is forecasted, and it is added from January to September. The installed capacity has reached 42 GW.
1. The rapid decline in the cost of the entire photovoltaic industry chain is the main reason that the market installed capacity has exceeded expectations.
According to the statistics of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the market price of photovoltaic modules decreased from RMB 36/watt to RMB 3/watt in the past eight years from 2007 to 2017, a decrease of 92%; the price of PV system on grid was reduced from RMB 60/watt. 7-8 yuan / watt, a drop of 87%; inverter prices from 4 yuan / watt dropped to 0.3 yuan / watt, a decrease of 92%. In the past two years, the price of PV modules still maintained a decline of more than 30%. Jibang new energy data shows that the module price has fallen from RMB 4/W in early 2016 to the current RMB 3/W. The poly component has dropped to RMB 2.8/W in early 2017. By 2020, it will be possible to reduce the price of photovoltaic power by another 30% and achieve parity on the electricity side. The price of PV industry chain fell faster than expected, drastically reduced the subsidy pressure and stimulated the use of photovoltaic power generation in major markets in the world, especially in developing countries. This is the most important reason why the installed capacity of PV exceeds expectations every year.
2. The release of technical dividends, and the cost of future industrial chains will continue to decline
On the silicon side, the growth rate of polysilicon production capacity is lower than the downstream expansion rate, and the current market situation where the supply exceeds the supply price is not sustainable. According to public information of various polysilicon companies, the new production capacity in the western region will be gradually released in 2018. The leading companies such as Daxin Brand New Energy, Xinte Energy, and GCL-Poly have accumulated over 100,000 tons of high-quality capacity expansion plans. For instance, GCL-Xin's base for the transfer of Xinjiang has already started construction and will be completed and put into operation in the second half of next year. Its cost will be the lowest in the world. After the production capacity is transferred, the remaining capacity of the Xuzhou base will be covered by the low power price of the captive power plant. The cost will be lower than that of all non-Western low-price regions. Coupled with its low-power consumption of silane fluidized-bed granulated silicon, the polysilicon price is expected to increase. At the end of 2018 there was a sharp drop. In addition, at the long crystal end, if the polycrystalline ingot does not purchase new equipment, the G8 ingot furnace will be upgraded to 30% of its production capacity, and the crystal structure will be further improved through thermal field transformation; , CCz continuous Czochralski technology and ingot single crystal technology will be further developed and applied. At the slicing end, the popularity of diamond wire cutting in the polycrystalline field is reduced by 30%. The wire diameter and price of diamond wire have a further downward trend. Diamond wire cutting + black silicon + PERC raises the polycrystalline efficiency to 20.5%. At the battery assembly side, the application of new technologies such as HJT, IBC, MWT, half-chip technology, and shingled technology will increase the power of the components. The full release of the cost-reduction and efficiency-enhancing technology dividends in all aspects of the entire industry chain will bring about a continuous decline in the prices of end products. According to a new analysis by CITIC, the cost of photovoltaic power at the end of 2019 is expected to reach 0.4 yuan/kWh.
3. The Distributed PV, PV Poverty Alleviation and “Leaders†project is a troika that will drive the development of the industry.
According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, domestic ground/distributed power stations increased by 27 GW/15 GW from January to September respectively, an increase of 20%/300% year-on-year, and the growth of distributed installations was rapid. In November 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau jointly issued the "Notice on Launching a Pilot Project for the Distributed Power Generation Marketization Transaction," clarifying that distributed power generation can use clean energy resources nearby to achieve market-oriented transactions. There is no index bottleneck in the distribution, and “wall-to-wall power sales†breaks the limit, and the grid does not need to worry about the breach of contract. Moreover, the market has derived a variety of distributed "photovoltaic +" models, rooftop photovoltaic, agricultural light one, fishing light integration, etc., according to new estimates of CITIC, the total potential installed capacity of about 7200 GW, the industry believes that distributed The outbreak of 2017 is only the starting point. As for PV poverty alleviation, as of September 2017, 13 provinces have incorporated all indicators into PV poverty alleviation, and the total amount will reach 10 GW according to the published data. PV poverty alleviation has the advantages of not lagging subsidies and ensuring consumption. Under the support of important national policies, PV poverty alleviation policies will continue to be implemented as an important component of precision poverty alleviation. The “leader†policy planned for 4 years of 32 GW in the “13th Five-Year Plan†period. Although the relative total amount is not large, it has a significant role in driving the photovoltaic industry. Under the trend of the gradual tightening of general centralized ground power stations, distributed, photovoltaic poverty alleviation, and “leadership†projects will become the main force for market substitution.
4. Subsidy will gradually retreat, and leading companies will lead to parity internet access
With the continuous decline in the prices of photovoltaic products, the subsidy needs to decline year by year has become an industry consensus. We believe that the new energy industry needs state support in the flood season. If it cannot continue to reduce the cost of electricity, the industry will lose its vitality. After PV realizes parity on the power generation side, it will get rid of subsidies and compete in all aspects. Manufacturers without quality and cost advantages will be eliminated. Eventually, they will survive as leading manufacturers of manufacturing companies and small and micro-supporting service companies with innovative business models.
Emerging Markets Break Out Trade Barriers
1. European PV market gradually shrinks
Affected by the economic downturn, major EU member states have slashed subsidies, and trade protection that is constrained by the price commitment mechanism has constrained PV development. Jibang new energy data shows that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity of the European Union decreased from 16.5 GW in 2012, 10 GW in 2013, and 7 GW in 2014 and 2015 to about 6.7 GW in 2016, which is declining year by year. Although the EU adjusted the minimum import price limit (MIP) in September 2017, the MIP gradually decreased from October, but the price is still more than 30% of the market price. Most of the major PV companies in China have already withdrawn their price commitment agreements, mainly exporting their third-generation capacity to Europe. The small size of the European market, coupled with circumvention measures by Chinese companies, has little effect on China's PV exports.
2. The US "201" clause has a limited impact on the industry as a whole
The U.S. government made a damage ruling on September 22, launching a “201†investigation on all photovoltaic products imported into the United States. At the end of recent years, we judged that the final judgment of “201†was definitely not favorable to non-US products including China's photovoltaics. However, the demand for the US market in the first half of next year has been unexpectedly imported into the United States in the second half of this year. The demand after the second half of next year will depend on the trend of the photovoltaic power generation market in the United States. In China's photovoltaic industry for five years under strong pressure, the United States’s solar cell and component companies have not survived. The bankrupt Suniva and Solarworld have left SolarCity, SunPower, Firstsolar, etc. to shift their investment in power station applications. Photovoltaic product manufacturing competitiveness. In the short term, the production capacity of other countries can not meet the needs of the United States, so the tax revenue means that the procurement of photovoltaic modules can only increase the price, which is a serious blow to the development of the US photovoltaic industry. We believe that the impact of the "201" survey on China's photovoltaic industry is not the same as the previous "double reverse". According to a new forecast from CITIC, the United States will reduce its installed capacity by 6 GW next year and the global total installed capacity by 110 GW next year, which will decline by about 5%. The turmoil in the United States will have limited impact on overall demand.
3. India's photovoltaic manufacturing industry chain still needs China's photovoltaic raw material products to be weak
According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, India has already replaced Japan as the third largest market in the world and China’s largest exporter of photovoltaic products. In January-August 2017, exports accounted for 28.3%, and 2017 is expected to reach 9-10 kilowatts. watt. Affected by severe haze, India has announced a huge clean energy promotion plan, but India's PV manufacturing industry chain is incomplete and it is still heavily dependent on China's imports in the short term. In July 2017, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of India issued an announcement to initiate anti-dumping investigations on photovoltaic cells and components imported from mainland China, Taiwan, and Malaysia. The development of the Indian market is inseparable from China's PV products with high cost performance and sufficient capacity, especially silicon products that account for 90% of the global production capacity. Therefore, silicon wafers are not listed in the anti-dumping investigation. However, a number of photovoltaic leaders, such as Altus, GCL, and JA, have announced that they will cooperate with Indian companies to promote PV manufacturing in India.
4. Incremental outbreaks of exports in emerging markets surpass the decline in traditional markets
According to the data released by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the export volume of wafers in January-August 2017 increased by 23.4% year-on-year, and was concentrated in China's Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and South Korea. The export volume of these five countries accounted for over 90%; The export volume increased by 39.1% year-on-year. The market was mainly in countries such as Brazil, India, and South Korea; the export volume of modules increased by 33.6% year-on-year; the mature markets for exports to Europe, America, Japan, and Japan gradually stabilized, and emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America gradually expanded. It can be seen that the main export of China's entire industrial chain photovoltaic products has become an emerging market, and European and American trade barriers have had little effect.
Future cost-effective photovoltaic products will dominate the market
According to research conducted by New State Energy Resources Research Institute, since the end of the third quarter of 2017, demand for monocrystalline silicon wafers, batteries, and components has seen a sharp decline in the entire industrial chain, and prices have yet to see a rebound in the market; while polycrystalline wafers have opened up capacity across the board. With a reasonable price and high cost performance, it has met the strong market demand, and the battery terminals have also turned to the polycrystalline production line.
1. Technical characteristics of single polycrystalline products
Monocrystalline conversion efficiency has been better than polycrystalline, but the cost control is difficult, and the market share is maintained below 20%. In the past two years, due to the promotion of diamond wire cutting and assists from China's “leadership†program, the market share of Danjing City has increased. Polycrystalline conversion efficiency is not as good as that of single crystals, but the efficiency gap is not large, and polycrystalline efficiency is increasing closer to single crystals. The key is low cost and high cost performance. The difference between single crystals and polycrystals is at the end of the silicon wafer, and the difference at the silicon wafer end is at the long crystal end, which is the huge difference between the unit production capacity and the power consumption of the polycrystalline ingot and the single crystal pulling rod process. According to publicly available data, the single-crystal monthly production capacity of single-crystal continuous casting furnace with 4 crystals per crystal is currently about 3 tons/month, and the crystal pulling power consumption is about 24 degrees/kg; the production capacity of polycrystalline ingot G7 furnace is approximately 9 tons / month, ingot electricity consumption of about 7 degrees / kg. At the slicing end, the single crystal company took the lead in completing the sharp reduction of diamond wire cutting instead of mortar cutting in 2016, making up for the cost disadvantage at the long crystal end. After three years of efforts, polycrystalline enterprises began to introduce diamond wire cutting in the second half of 2017, reducing costs by 0.5-0.8 yuan/piece, and single polycrystalline chips returned to the same starting line in the sectioning process. However, diamond wire-cut polysilicon wafers face surface treatment problems. Currently, the matured mass production of black silicon technology has not only successfully resolved suede reflection, but also improved the conversion efficiency by 0.3%-0.6%, and the gain in efficiency has exceeded the investment in black silicon fleece end. It is estimated that the cost of wet black silicon technology will increase by about 0.02 yuan/watt, with a gain of 0.05 yuan/watt, and the price/performance ratio will increase significantly.
2. The rapid industrialization of polycrystalline wafers and the standard deviation of the single crystal performance-to-price ratio are 0.4 yuan/piece for silicon wafers and 0.06 yuan/watt for modules.
Observing the development of photovoltaic manufacturing technology, it can be seen that diamond wire cutting, PERC, and half-chip technologies are all first applied in single crystals, turning to polycrystalline after the completion of monocrystalline test completion, and occupying 80% of the market's share of polycrystalline silicon is the industrialization of photovoltaic technology. The main force. Take diamond wire cutting as an example, Muller's new material is introduced. In the past, all diamonds used in diamond cutting did not have much demand. This year's larger-scale multi-crystalline diamond wire is much faster than expected, and the demand for diamond wire is Huge amplification, diamond lines in short supply. With the decrease of hard spots of polycrystalline ingot crystals and the increase of strength of diamond wire, single polycrystal cutting will move towards thin line together: in 2017, single crystal mainstream diameter is 65μm, polycrystalline 70μm; 2018 single crystal 60μm, Polycrystalline 65μm, by 2020, single crystal can use 50μm diamond wire. The single polycrystalline efficiency difference has been maintained at 1.5%, but polycrystalline silicon has progressed faster in the past year. Diamond wire + black silicon + PERC will increase the mass production efficiency of polycrystalline batteries to 20.5%, which is inconsistent with the mass production efficiency of single crystal PERC batteries. Shrink to 0.7%-0.8%. It is estimated that after the single polycrystalline efficiency difference is reduced, the cost-effectiveness gap at the component end has been reduced from 0.1 yuan/watt in previous years to 0.06 yuan/watt, which can cover the difference in BOS cost of the photovoltaic power generation system and conduct it to the silicon end. The difference from the previous 0.6 yuan / piece was reduced to 0.4 yuan / piece, that is, the price of single crystal silicon wafer can only be 0.4 yuan higher than the price of polysilicon film / piece, in order to maintain the same single crystal components and polycrystalline components in the photovoltaic power end The cost of electricity investment.
3. Polycrystalline Upstream and Downstream Collaboration Closely Formed Destiny Community will take the lead in entering parity Internet access
Photovoltaic industry links in various industries adhere to specialization, adhere to science and technology, technology-driven. We believe that single-crystal companies with single crystals in the same upstream and downstream sectors are in a purely competitive relationship. Through competition to seize the market, there is not enough synergy between the industry chains and cooperation between peers is lacking. As major market players, the leading companies in the entire industry chain have formed a destiny community. Through a series of vertical and horizontal linkages, they jointly promote new technologies in technical cooperation promotion, equipment and industrial support, and market development. , Such as jointly promoting diamond cutting, sharing of black silicon technology, the upper reaches of the original profit to the downstream, etc., module prices have always maintained at a reasonable price, sufficient production capacity to meet the "leader" projects and other market needs. We predict that polycrystalline products will be the first to become the mainstream products for PV access to the consumer side after 2019.
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