Faster software and slower hardware

The time of June 2016 was a time of confusion, and the key was that the previous wave of Internet bonuses was exhausted. The next wave of opportunities looked out there, but the various attempts only saw expenses and no results. The various methodologies summarized earlier have basically failed in such a transitional period, so whether it is seeking profit or seeking ideals, it is a bit of a dent.

To understand how a product should work, one must first understand the inborn traits of the product, followed by the human attributes of the product. For example, tools and social networks are software, so there are common features of the software, but because of the different needs of the user's scene, the product is polished to brush on the tool's own sense of existence, and one must avoid the user's sense of being overwhelmed. Software-based common characteristics will come up with methodologies such as minimally configurable products (MVP), lean, etc. All of these features rely on software to be pure-bit products, the cost of trial and error is extremely low, and they can be updated online, which is equivalent to being recalled at any time. . Based on this feature, users can be rolled in to form a real-time feedback system. So previous software products can really be said to be fast and not broken.

This kind of advantage in the fast 2C product is not only reflected in quick access to user feedback, but also in the public relations, marketing and other links. For example: two similar products, one for the first time, to seize the user's mind, which may be catastrophic for advertising on similar products in the future, because you may only get half the click for the same advertising fee The quantity (Fashion Yang Haoyong specifically mentioned this issue in a speech). Similarly, this kind of quick thinking can also be extended to financing. The first name in a certain field is usually helpful for financing.

Corresponding to the fast is the difficulty of product differentiation, a very embarrassing thing is that you can polish the product very well, which is really helpful to attract users, but copying a software product is easier than expected. Who can not make a product like Taobao! The key to the difficulty of product differentiation lies in the fact that many of the products in the past are not technology-driven, and the model and pure product design are extremely easy to be plagiarized. The core of the difference that can be generated in this way is the amount of users, and as mentioned above, fast is very important for making such differences.

Hardware is not as fast as software. The key is that hardware is fast, cost price is sold, and back-end cash is a set of logic that is bound together. But it's easy to do something with a bit of it. The most needed behind this is cross-subsidization. In other words, if the hardware can really be realized at the back end, and the software scale effect, then the hardware can not make money, otherwise the trick will not play.

Many people today began to reflect on Xiaomi's model, but as early as September 2014, when Xiaomi was in its midst, I once analyzed the potential problems of Xiaomi:

As a result, the question arises: Can millet continue to make people continue to scream and fever? If it does not, it will present the kind of rapid prosperity-destruction pattern that is common in the stock market.

This is constrained by two key factors, one is the supply of technology; the other is the creative capacity of the organization.

From the perspective of technology supply, this matter is pessimistic.

Recalling the development of Windows, it can be a good understanding of this matter.

Windows 95 is a frightening change compared to Dos 6.22 and Windows 3.1, so everyone remembers this product. Windows 95 to Windows XP is a huge change, so people remember it, but the rest of Windows didn't change that much. The deep impression is more like a slight improvement. This needs to be viewed from the user's perspective, not from Microsoft's point of view. Because if the rational analysis, from the performance, security and other aspects can indeed find the Windows changes, but from the user's point of view, this change is different from the previously mentioned magnitude of change. For example, when it comes to Windows 8, the start menu has not been changed by the largest magnitude.

The same is true of millet. It is shocking to see Xiaomi’s debut on the cost-effectiveness of innovation based on the model. However, the more sustained this kind of shocking change, the less likely it will be, and later it will be the same as Windows. Various changes will be reflected in MIUI's ease of use. Gradual improvement in sex. Although it is true that nothing is true, it is extremely unfavorable to see simple changes from the perspective of people's love and sense of participation. The millet model, especially the social part of it, is likely to be like a chronic poison.

This is not a company's problem. Its root cause is that consciousness always runs faster than reality. It focuses on cultural feelings. It is not a pure bit-based product (such as games). It is easy for expectations and reality to open up the gap. A person’s desire can quickly inflate to possess the whole world, but the ability of reality cannot match this kind of inflationary speed.

A simple way to solve this problem is to expand the product line. If there is not enough technology available on the mobile phone, then switch props to other things, such as TVs, routers, bracelets, etc. to repeat their success on mobile phones. This can alleviate the problem to some extent, but it may actually deepen the conflict. The reason is very simple. If it is necessary to get the engine to achieve the purpose of screaming, but in order to solve the short-term problem, it is always on the car shell to make a fuss, which is actually not conducive to the solution of the problem.

What's even more frightening is that there is a profound conflict of value orientation behind this. We need to know that the spirit of death or product and technology needs to be very different from the spirit of word-of-mouth marketing. The rapid expansion of the product line is the desired result from a marketing perspective, because the same model can be replicated to expand the scale, but it is not conducive to making fundamental changes in the product. The image is that if you admit that Apple and yourself have 4 to 5 years The difference is that this approach is actually not conducive to reducing this gap. The balance between these two values ​​is actually very tough, Jobs should be one of the two, so he said salesman such as Ballmer will actually ruin a company, but in the millet model is equal to both the product and marketing Do it well, because they are an organic whole, which is undoubtedly a challenge that Jobs has not solved.

From here it is easy to extend the basic principles of hardware product play: if the technology is overwhelmed Xiaomi's ideas can quickly be successful methods, this is basically the continuation of the idea of ​​doing software, the bones are still playing fast. However, when the technology is scarce, the company immediately rushes to the pit because the new products that are not yet fully mature in technology are not the key factors. The key is whether the product can build more than 85 points. This is the difference between assembling and really creating a new product. Imagine, I introduced a new hardware product, but only 59 points, used people are bad reviews, then how can it have the future.

The general mindset of domestic companies is to see how the sales of similar products in the market are in the end, but this kind of thinking is actually contrary to the next wave. We assume that the period for building a new product on the basis of basic technology maturity is 1.5 to 2 years, and then assume that the high-speed growth period of a product is three years. If these two periods overlap, we can find the above ideas. Just missed the successful new products. The life cycle of the product has started when it started to build the product. After the product is built, others have already occupied the right market share in the market.

This is a dilemma. Is it necessary to face the uncertain risk or follow the market?

In the past, the latter strategy was established. Japanese companies usually adopt this kind of close-knit tactics, but doing so requires a great deal of patience to create advantages in sales channels, production designs, and supply chains. Long-cycle, high-manufacturing products are established, such as automobiles and copiers. But it does not work well under the wave of AI. The fundamental reason is that AI clearly brings new features to the industry:

The key here is the high integration of software and hardware. If we look closely, we will find that foreign mainstream technology companies actually spend money on hardware, such as Microsoft and Nokia, Facebook and Oculus, Amazon's Lab126, Google and Nest. This trend of softness and hardness will eventually lead to success once its success will not be duplicated, leaving no room for imitators. When Windows is successful, your system is twice as good as Windows, but it can't shake Windows' advantage on PC. This is a new feature that the software will bring to the integrated product after the integration of hardware and software.

But this also brings a very bad result, it will be extremely high to enter the threshold of an industry. The integration of smart hardware and software trends, the ideal situation is to get the core relying on their own technology, such as going out to ask to do the watch, then we must get behind the voice, semantics, but also get the hardware in the front end. But this will face a very embarrassing situation. First of all, its high threshold will filter out some people. Second, even if it is fortunate to intervene, the cost of trial and error will be extremely high. Even if it is 30 million RMB, it will be mostly entrepreneurial. The company will only have 2 trial and error opportunities. This is back to the above topic. What is needed in the era of AI is highly forward-looking prediction and slow-moving hardware polishing methods.

Almost all of the articles written in this article have been systematically analyzed in previous books, but it is estimated that when they were written, they did not pay attention to readability, so the text would be too hard. Therefore, they were diluted here and they were also filled in. Something new.

Lei Feng Network (search "Lei Feng Network" public number attention) Note: This article author Li Zhiyong, ten programmers, there is a love thinking about fun and fun number: zuomoshi (sorry things)

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