The mobile phone market is once again in a chaos.
Google may want people to think that its Android operating system is friendly and interesting, but the industry does not think so.
Believe in Steve Jobs's intuition: He usually attacks only the technology he is most worried about. In October 2010, he rated Google's innovation as "very, very fragmented," and said that it puts forward "dreadable challenges" for developers. It's not unreasonable - but major mobile phone companies such as HTC and Motorola Sony Ericsson, ZTE, LG, Samsung, and new Huawei, Acer, and Dell all began to rise. They are filled with Android platform phones in retail stores, and retailers are selling this operating system as an "essential" feature of the season.
In order to introduce factual arguments to the debate, Bai Yatian recently conducted benchmarking research on 57 Android phones of 12 companies. It examines the official release date of the Android system, the release date of the mobile phone, and the chipset platform. The emergence of the Android system has indeed changed the situation significantly - the following are three of the findings:
• The average cycle time is only 8 months for handsets based on Qualcomm's QSD8250 chipset and Android Donut 1.6, which were first released in 2008. In the second half of 2009, the average cycle time of handsets based on Qualcomm's MSM7227 chipset and Android Eclair2.1 was halved to 4.5 months. This is the "curvature" of smart phones.
• Second, Android makes speed no longer an advantage. In the past, manufacturers with faster product launches were able to win high profit margins of 6 to 9 months. However, now, the cycle time of different manufacturers is almost the same - they can all launch new phones after the latest Android system is released 16-20 weeks later.
Third, most mobile phones (77% of the sample) are based on Qualcomm's chipset. A good observer may think that this situation is not optimistic. Over the years, Microsoft and Intel have gained more value than computer makers. Will "Quadroid" become the next Wintel?
From a comprehensive perspective, the three indications are of great significance. In 2007, Android certainly looked like an easy and affordable way to challenge Apple's great success with its iOS-iPhone-iTunes combination. However, this adventure brought a dislocated beast. After three years, it seems that the mobile phone maker will become its intra-meal food.
Bai Yatian’s outlook for the future is roughly as follows:
· The war situation in the time-to-market has become more stable, new products are rushing to market, and the "Quadroid" has become the main force in the market, which will cause the gross profit of mobile phone manufacturers to drop to an abnormally low level - close to that encountered by major computer manufacturers such as Acer and Lenovo. 8-10% range. Some mobile phone manufacturers may not be able to escape bad luck and fail.
• Mobile phone developers must intensify their search for new perspectives to ensure differentiation in order to counter the huge pressure on gross margins. This must take into account the richness of industrial design, user experience, applications, and new business models. In short, developers must keep Apple's model to a greater extent while maintaining a different relationship with Apple.
· Mobile phone manufacturers that are reluctant to submit to Google completely must choose the best alternative among other operating systems. Gross margin pressure means fewer development platforms, but if it does, it may also create an unbalanced supply that also lacks profit margins.
· Consumer demand will become increasingly volatile. Faced with many similar products with the same core technology, fashion and style will bring huge sales to successful products. At the same time, not the best product will lose its competitiveness. This requires manufacturers to have strong agility in production and supply chain.
After all, when companies rethink their operations strategy, they must realize that maintaining neutrality is no longer feasible. They must make decisions and make decisions on whether Android is an enemy or a friend.
Google may want people to think that its Android operating system is friendly and interesting, but the industry does not think so.
Believe in Steve Jobs's intuition: He usually attacks only the technology he is most worried about. In October 2010, he rated Google's innovation as "very, very fragmented," and said that it puts forward "dreadable challenges" for developers. It's not unreasonable - but major mobile phone companies such as HTC and Motorola Sony Ericsson, ZTE, LG, Samsung, and new Huawei, Acer, and Dell all began to rise. They are filled with Android platform phones in retail stores, and retailers are selling this operating system as an "essential" feature of the season.
In order to introduce factual arguments to the debate, Bai Yatian recently conducted benchmarking research on 57 Android phones of 12 companies. It examines the official release date of the Android system, the release date of the mobile phone, and the chipset platform. The emergence of the Android system has indeed changed the situation significantly - the following are three of the findings:
• The average cycle time is only 8 months for handsets based on Qualcomm's QSD8250 chipset and Android Donut 1.6, which were first released in 2008. In the second half of 2009, the average cycle time of handsets based on Qualcomm's MSM7227 chipset and Android Eclair2.1 was halved to 4.5 months. This is the "curvature" of smart phones.
• Second, Android makes speed no longer an advantage. In the past, manufacturers with faster product launches were able to win high profit margins of 6 to 9 months. However, now, the cycle time of different manufacturers is almost the same - they can all launch new phones after the latest Android system is released 16-20 weeks later.
Third, most mobile phones (77% of the sample) are based on Qualcomm's chipset. A good observer may think that this situation is not optimistic. Over the years, Microsoft and Intel have gained more value than computer makers. Will "Quadroid" become the next Wintel?
From a comprehensive perspective, the three indications are of great significance. In 2007, Android certainly looked like an easy and affordable way to challenge Apple's great success with its iOS-iPhone-iTunes combination. However, this adventure brought a dislocated beast. After three years, it seems that the mobile phone maker will become its intra-meal food.
Bai Yatian’s outlook for the future is roughly as follows:
· The war situation in the time-to-market has become more stable, new products are rushing to market, and the "Quadroid" has become the main force in the market, which will cause the gross profit of mobile phone manufacturers to drop to an abnormally low level - close to that encountered by major computer manufacturers such as Acer and Lenovo. 8-10% range. Some mobile phone manufacturers may not be able to escape bad luck and fail.
• Mobile phone developers must intensify their search for new perspectives to ensure differentiation in order to counter the huge pressure on gross margins. This must take into account the richness of industrial design, user experience, applications, and new business models. In short, developers must keep Apple's model to a greater extent while maintaining a different relationship with Apple.
· Mobile phone manufacturers that are reluctant to submit to Google completely must choose the best alternative among other operating systems. Gross margin pressure means fewer development platforms, but if it does, it may also create an unbalanced supply that also lacks profit margins.
· Consumer demand will become increasingly volatile. Faced with many similar products with the same core technology, fashion and style will bring huge sales to successful products. At the same time, not the best product will lose its competitiveness. This requires manufacturers to have strong agility in production and supply chain.
After all, when companies rethink their operations strategy, they must realize that maintaining neutrality is no longer feasible. They must make decisions and make decisions on whether Android is an enemy or a friend.
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