On the other hand, due to the softening of the EU's attitude in the final stage of the photovoltaic double-difference, given a two-month negotiation period, we believe that the two parties will eventually negotiate a certain result based on a win-win situation, and our country will also be As a well-intentioned bargaining chip, it will be announced after the results of the negotiation, and will eventually be ruled out as non-taxable or low tax rate. That is to say, in fact, the imported silicon materials of the three major countries in this double reverse, only part of the import volume of the US factory will be blocked, and the lost market share will be divided between WACKER and OCI.
Double reverse effect
The biggest impact of this double reverse is the manufacturers using Hemelock and REC materials. Hemelock itself is mainly based on bulk materials, which has high homogeneity with OCI and WACKER products and is easy to be replaced, while REC is mainly based on granular materials. Looking at the domestic and even the global, there are no manufacturers that can be replaced, and the pellet material is a raw material that is more difficult to replace for the single crystal enterprise, so the single crystal enterprise may be affected by the cost increase in the short term, and will then switch to the way of processing and exporting the raw material Reduce tariff costs. In other words, the demand for REC will not drop to 0, and conservative estimates will only drop by 40%.
On the other hand, the market share of Hemelock and MEMC in the domestic solar-grade polysilicon is not high. If there are long orders that have not been canceled, they cannot completely prevent their entry. Therefore, on the whole, this double-antibody actually only vacated a monthly gap of about 1,500 tons, most of which will be eaten up by WACKER and OCI.
price
In the short term, due to the release of OCI risks, there will be a large amount of domestic demand turning to OCI. The price may increase slightly, and WACKER is also supported by the concepts described in the previous paragraph. Both demand and prices can remain stable. Domestic silicon material manufacturers will maintain their prices or follow up because of this stable and bullish trend, but will continue to decline after a period of time due to insufficient demand.
As of now, there are seven polysilicon companies in China that are still open, and four polysilicon companies are undergoing technical maintenance or renovation and upgrading. If not included in the latter, the total annual production capacity is about 90,000 tons, which is about 16.9GW of end products. Due to the different construction conditions in the first half of the year, the 8.5GW is only calculated in the second half of this year. Overseas polysilicon in the first half of this year, under the shadow of the double anti-shadow, the monthly import volume is about 5000-6000 tons. The import volume in the first half of the year can reach 36,000 tons, which is about 6.8GW of terminal demand, that is to say, the second half of this year The total supply of polysilicon material needs to be digested by 15.3GW of demand.
Although in the second half of this year, due to weak European demand and a large inventory of Chinese products, the demand in the channel may shrink to below 5GW in the second half of the year. However, the demand from China, the United States and Japan will increase in the second half of the year, plus India, South Africa, Demand for emerging markets such as Thailand is expected to be 13.5GW for China-made components in the second half of the year, which means that the actual supply of polysilicon will be more stable in the second half of the year, and there will be room for upside in the short term. Sustainability depends on the domestic demand driven by the expectations of the distributed market and the outcome of the EU's dual anti-negotiations.
variable
In fact, there are still three variables undecided in this double reverse, the first is the result of the double reverse of the EU polysilicon. Although it is generally speculated that it will be the result of non-taxation or low tax rates, there are still risks because there are no definitive documents. The second is whether there is a retrospective period. The Ministry of Commerce stated in the document of the preliminary ruling of the US and South Korea's polysilicon double countermeasures that during the investigation, downstream manufacturers expressed strong objections, but whether it will be retrospective will be decided at the final ruling. The third is to determine whether the granular material produced by the fluidized bed method is included in the double reverse. In the preliminary ruling, it was determined to be within the scope of double opposition, but due to the requirements of the REC, a full hearing will be held during the time of continued investigation.
In addition to the variables of the double counter-judgment itself, there are also variables in the market that affect demand. The biggest variable comes from the release and implementation time of the details of China's photovoltaic subsidy policy. The demand in the second half of this year is 5 ~ 7GW. The forecast includes because The FIT rate introduced at the end of the year to install the tide, we believe that the relevant policies will be released before the end of September, and give a three-month construction buffer period, so there will be greater demand for terminal products from September to October, once subsidized The introduction of detailed rules is not in line with expectations, which may affect the demand expectations in the second half of this year, which in turn will affect the judgment of prices.
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