Recently, the “China Business†reporter obtained an exclusive “12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Solar PV Industryâ€. In this nearly ten thousand-word document, China’s photovoltaic industry’s production, costs, and Environmental regulations and scale have been detailed. An expert involved in the formulation of the plan said: "According to the "plan" comment draft, some small businesses will be eliminated.
A number of insiders told reporters that if no accident occurs, the "plan" opinion draft will be introduced around October 2011, photovoltaic giants will also have a new range of spheres of influence.
Decryption of “Planning†Opinion Draft “We have been holding discussions on the draft of “Planning†in Beijing for two days and the meeting will end on September 2.†On August 31st, a large-scale PV company participated in the seminar of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The person in charge disclosed to reporters that at present domestic leading photovoltaic companies such as Jiangxi Levi, GCL-Poly, Suntech, Changzhou Tianhe and Other companies all participated in the meeting. "At present, the content of the "plan" comment has been basically finalized. After the seminar is over this week, it will be reported to the State Council and will be implemented before and after National Day."
According to the above-mentioned person in charge, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has formulated the draft of the “planning†in August, and has already undergone some investigations before that. The document details certain technical details. “This is relatively rare, because some technical terms are not completely understood by us. It can be seen that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has done a very detailed investigation.â€
According to the “Planning†comment posted by the reporter, by 2015, the installed capacity of China’s domestic photovoltaic power generation capacity will reach 10 GW, and last year China’s installed capacity is still less than 500 MW, which also means that in the next few years, China’s annual PV increase Installed capacity will reach 2GW.
Previously, China's photovoltaic industry has been dependent on exports, and China's domestic market share of photovoltaics is still less than 10% of companies. However, the "plan" comment draft or change this pattern. A person involved in the discussion stated: "The annual installed capacity of 2 GW is equal to the installed capacity in Spain for one year and will play a decisive role in the opening of the domestic photovoltaic market."
In addition, the "planning" comment shows that the Chinese government will focus on supporting backbone photovoltaic companies, provide funding, loans and other support, will form 1 to 2 50,000-ton-grade polysilicon enterprises in 2015, 2 to 4 million tons Grade 1 polysilicon companies; 1~2 5GW solar cell companies, 8~10 GW solar cell companies; 3~4 PV special equipment companies with annual sales revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan; 1~2 annual sales revenues 100 billion yuan of photovoltaic companies, 3 to 5 photovoltaic companies with annual sales income of over 50 billion yuan.
"This is basically divided according to the strength of the existing enterprises. The 50,000-ton-grade polysilicon company mainly refers to GCL-Poly, and by the end of this year, GCL-Poly's production capacity will reach 62,000 tons. In addition, Jiangxi Seville is also desperately The expansion may reach 50,000 tons of capacity; and 5GW of solar cell manufacturers refers to Wuxi Suntech, these goals are not difficult to achieve, but some newly emerging manufacturers will also take this opportunity to attack the leading companies. "The person in charge of the above-mentioned company said.
In terms of energy consumption, the “planning†opinion draft also has strict regulations. By 2015, polysilicon production will achieve simultaneous increase in industrial scale, product quality, and environmental protection level. The average integrated power consumption is lower than 120kWh/kg, and the comprehensive utilization rate of by-products is 99. More than %, enterprises that have failed in energy consumption will be shut down and eliminated.
In addition, the plan also made predictions about the cost target of photovoltaic power generation. By 2015, the cost of the photovoltaic system will be reduced to 15,000 yuan/kW, the cost of power generation will drop to 0.8 yuan/kWh, and the power distribution side will reach “parity Internet access.†By 2020, The system cost has dropped to 10,000 yuan/kW, the cost of power generation has reached 0.6 yuan/kWh, and the company has achieved "flat-rate Internet access" on the power generation side, achieving effective competition in major power markets.
A photovoltaic cell manufacturer in Jiangsu told reporters that the cost of the plan is expected to be too cautious. According to the current decline in the price of polysilicon, the cost of electricity generation will likely be reduced to less than 0.7 yuan by 2015. “For example, the cost of downtime for big manufacturers such as Wuxi Suntech is extremely alarming. The planned price is mainly to take care of some medium-sized manufacturers, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has made some compromises in terms of costs.â€
Thin film vitality In the "planning" opinion draft, the thin film battery which once was in awkward position received unprecedented attention.
The document pointed out that in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, it will focus on the development of amorphous and microcrystalline combined laminated and multi-junction thin film batteries. In order to reduce the photo-induced attenuation of thin-film batteries, companies are encouraged to develop large-area high-efficiency silicon thin-film batteries over 5.5 generations, and to develop continuous roll-to-roll production processes for flexible silicon-based thin-film solar cells.
A person involved in the discussion of the standard said that the above content is mainly to promote the industrialization of thin-film batteries, which is a contribution to the snow. "At present, the market share of thin-film batteries in China is less than 10%. Many companies are seriously short of funds and are unsustainable. If the country does not support them, it is likely that it will be completely destroyed."
In the history of photovoltaics, domestic photovoltaic cells are divided into two camps: crystalline silicon cells and thin-film batteries. Then, the crystalline silicon battery occupies a major market, and the thin-film battery has a poor survival. The gap between the two is mainly in terms of cost and conversion rate, crystalline silicon cell conversion rate of up to 14% to 16%, but the cost is more than 30% more expensive than the film; and thin film battery although low price, but the conversion rate is only 6% ~ 8% , much lower than the crystalline silicon battery. With the continuous decline in the price of polysilicon in the upper reaches of the photovoltaic industry, the space for thin-film batteries is further squeezed.
Gu Huamin, president of Central Engineering, believes that in 2008 and 2009, the capital market once sought a thin film concept, but now it has gradually become cold. First of all, because thin-film batteries have not made significant technological progress in these years, the conversion rate has remained at 6%~. Between 8%, there is too much difference with the crystalline silicon battery; in addition, the thin film battery can not be opened for many years, leading to the failure to achieve large-scale production.
Suntech, a Wuxi source, told reporters that thin-film batteries are in trouble in China because after the financial crisis in 2008, the price of polysilicon dropped from 400 US dollars/kg to today's 50 US$/kg, which directly led to a significant drop in the cost of crystalline silicon batteries. The price difference between the thin film and the thin film has been reduced, and the thin film battery has not progressed in technology and cost since 2008. Therefore, it is declining in the competition with the crystalline silicon battery.
In August 2010, Suntech announced that it had halted its production plan for thin-film solar panels in Shanghai. The transformation of crystalline silicon cells has triggered a turbulent sound in the thin-film battery industry.
However, the turning point may begin to appear in accordance with the requirements of the “Planning†comment draft. By 2015, the industrial conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon batteries will reach 21%, polysilicon batteries will reach 19%, and amorphous silicon thin film batteries will reach 12%.
“As long as there are powerful companies such as Suntech and Yingli, it is not difficult to achieve this goal.†An individual from the state-owned power generation group stated that thin-film batteries are not without development prospects, and their advantages such as low cost and resistance to harsh environments are very competitive. Force, which is also the success of the United States First Solar Company, the world's largest thin film battery manufacturer. It is reported that the average conversion rate of the first solar energy company in the United States has reached 11.7%, and its test battery conversion rate has reached 17.3%.
The above-mentioned sources complained to reporters that the status quo at present is when the power plant is operating, and it is required to send products to the so-called domestic film makers. They found that they have only a small amount of products. They are not only in stock but also have incomplete equipment.
“As in the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the state can give a reasonable subsidy to thin-film battery manufacturers in terms of R&D, financing, etc. China's thin-film battery market is not far away from the opening date.†An executive at Zhejiang Zhengtai Solar Energy Co., Ltd. is not without Excitement prophecy.
A number of insiders told reporters that if no accident occurs, the "plan" opinion draft will be introduced around October 2011, photovoltaic giants will also have a new range of spheres of influence.
Decryption of “Planning†Opinion Draft “We have been holding discussions on the draft of “Planning†in Beijing for two days and the meeting will end on September 2.†On August 31st, a large-scale PV company participated in the seminar of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The person in charge disclosed to reporters that at present domestic leading photovoltaic companies such as Jiangxi Levi, GCL-Poly, Suntech, Changzhou Tianhe and Other companies all participated in the meeting. "At present, the content of the "plan" comment has been basically finalized. After the seminar is over this week, it will be reported to the State Council and will be implemented before and after National Day."
According to the above-mentioned person in charge, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has formulated the draft of the “planning†in August, and has already undergone some investigations before that. The document details certain technical details. “This is relatively rare, because some technical terms are not completely understood by us. It can be seen that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has done a very detailed investigation.â€
According to the “Planning†comment posted by the reporter, by 2015, the installed capacity of China’s domestic photovoltaic power generation capacity will reach 10 GW, and last year China’s installed capacity is still less than 500 MW, which also means that in the next few years, China’s annual PV increase Installed capacity will reach 2GW.
Previously, China's photovoltaic industry has been dependent on exports, and China's domestic market share of photovoltaics is still less than 10% of companies. However, the "plan" comment draft or change this pattern. A person involved in the discussion stated: "The annual installed capacity of 2 GW is equal to the installed capacity in Spain for one year and will play a decisive role in the opening of the domestic photovoltaic market."
In addition, the "planning" comment shows that the Chinese government will focus on supporting backbone photovoltaic companies, provide funding, loans and other support, will form 1 to 2 50,000-ton-grade polysilicon enterprises in 2015, 2 to 4 million tons Grade 1 polysilicon companies; 1~2 5GW solar cell companies, 8~10 GW solar cell companies; 3~4 PV special equipment companies with annual sales revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan; 1~2 annual sales revenues 100 billion yuan of photovoltaic companies, 3 to 5 photovoltaic companies with annual sales income of over 50 billion yuan.
"This is basically divided according to the strength of the existing enterprises. The 50,000-ton-grade polysilicon company mainly refers to GCL-Poly, and by the end of this year, GCL-Poly's production capacity will reach 62,000 tons. In addition, Jiangxi Seville is also desperately The expansion may reach 50,000 tons of capacity; and 5GW of solar cell manufacturers refers to Wuxi Suntech, these goals are not difficult to achieve, but some newly emerging manufacturers will also take this opportunity to attack the leading companies. "The person in charge of the above-mentioned company said.
In terms of energy consumption, the “planning†opinion draft also has strict regulations. By 2015, polysilicon production will achieve simultaneous increase in industrial scale, product quality, and environmental protection level. The average integrated power consumption is lower than 120kWh/kg, and the comprehensive utilization rate of by-products is 99. More than %, enterprises that have failed in energy consumption will be shut down and eliminated.
In addition, the plan also made predictions about the cost target of photovoltaic power generation. By 2015, the cost of the photovoltaic system will be reduced to 15,000 yuan/kW, the cost of power generation will drop to 0.8 yuan/kWh, and the power distribution side will reach “parity Internet access.†By 2020, The system cost has dropped to 10,000 yuan/kW, the cost of power generation has reached 0.6 yuan/kWh, and the company has achieved "flat-rate Internet access" on the power generation side, achieving effective competition in major power markets.
A photovoltaic cell manufacturer in Jiangsu told reporters that the cost of the plan is expected to be too cautious. According to the current decline in the price of polysilicon, the cost of electricity generation will likely be reduced to less than 0.7 yuan by 2015. “For example, the cost of downtime for big manufacturers such as Wuxi Suntech is extremely alarming. The planned price is mainly to take care of some medium-sized manufacturers, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has made some compromises in terms of costs.â€
Thin film vitality In the "planning" opinion draft, the thin film battery which once was in awkward position received unprecedented attention.
The document pointed out that in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, it will focus on the development of amorphous and microcrystalline combined laminated and multi-junction thin film batteries. In order to reduce the photo-induced attenuation of thin-film batteries, companies are encouraged to develop large-area high-efficiency silicon thin-film batteries over 5.5 generations, and to develop continuous roll-to-roll production processes for flexible silicon-based thin-film solar cells.
A person involved in the discussion of the standard said that the above content is mainly to promote the industrialization of thin-film batteries, which is a contribution to the snow. "At present, the market share of thin-film batteries in China is less than 10%. Many companies are seriously short of funds and are unsustainable. If the country does not support them, it is likely that it will be completely destroyed."
In the history of photovoltaics, domestic photovoltaic cells are divided into two camps: crystalline silicon cells and thin-film batteries. Then, the crystalline silicon battery occupies a major market, and the thin-film battery has a poor survival. The gap between the two is mainly in terms of cost and conversion rate, crystalline silicon cell conversion rate of up to 14% to 16%, but the cost is more than 30% more expensive than the film; and thin film battery although low price, but the conversion rate is only 6% ~ 8% , much lower than the crystalline silicon battery. With the continuous decline in the price of polysilicon in the upper reaches of the photovoltaic industry, the space for thin-film batteries is further squeezed.
Gu Huamin, president of Central Engineering, believes that in 2008 and 2009, the capital market once sought a thin film concept, but now it has gradually become cold. First of all, because thin-film batteries have not made significant technological progress in these years, the conversion rate has remained at 6%~. Between 8%, there is too much difference with the crystalline silicon battery; in addition, the thin film battery can not be opened for many years, leading to the failure to achieve large-scale production.
Suntech, a Wuxi source, told reporters that thin-film batteries are in trouble in China because after the financial crisis in 2008, the price of polysilicon dropped from 400 US dollars/kg to today's 50 US$/kg, which directly led to a significant drop in the cost of crystalline silicon batteries. The price difference between the thin film and the thin film has been reduced, and the thin film battery has not progressed in technology and cost since 2008. Therefore, it is declining in the competition with the crystalline silicon battery.
In August 2010, Suntech announced that it had halted its production plan for thin-film solar panels in Shanghai. The transformation of crystalline silicon cells has triggered a turbulent sound in the thin-film battery industry.
However, the turning point may begin to appear in accordance with the requirements of the “Planning†comment draft. By 2015, the industrial conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon batteries will reach 21%, polysilicon batteries will reach 19%, and amorphous silicon thin film batteries will reach 12%.
“As long as there are powerful companies such as Suntech and Yingli, it is not difficult to achieve this goal.†An individual from the state-owned power generation group stated that thin-film batteries are not without development prospects, and their advantages such as low cost and resistance to harsh environments are very competitive. Force, which is also the success of the United States First Solar Company, the world's largest thin film battery manufacturer. It is reported that the average conversion rate of the first solar energy company in the United States has reached 11.7%, and its test battery conversion rate has reached 17.3%.
The above-mentioned sources complained to reporters that the status quo at present is when the power plant is operating, and it is required to send products to the so-called domestic film makers. They found that they have only a small amount of products. They are not only in stock but also have incomplete equipment.
“As in the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the state can give a reasonable subsidy to thin-film battery manufacturers in terms of R&D, financing, etc. China's thin-film battery market is not far away from the opening date.†An executive at Zhejiang Zhengtai Solar Energy Co., Ltd. is not without Excitement prophecy.
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