Is artificial intelligence replacing robots with humans?

In this interview in early spring in Beijing, I particularly want to ask Dr. Hong Xiaowen's question. How long can this wave of artificial intelligence represented by AlphaGo defeat the human master of chess? Artificial intelligence aims to replace robots with humans? ?
This is related to the resume of Dr. Xiaowen: He joined Microsoft in 1995, served as Dean of the Microsoft Asia Research Institute in 2007, and served as Chairman of Microsoft Asia-Pacific Research and Development Group in 2014. He began his career with Carnegie in the 1980s. Luo Jie Ruidi, a pioneer of artificial intelligence at Mellon University, did speech recognition research. He became a fellow brother with Li Kaifu and Shen Xiangyang. Reidy’s mentor was John McCarthy, who first proposed the term Artificial Intelligence in 1955. The following year, in the summer of 1956, Dartmouth College took the lead in organizing an artificial intelligence summer research project. Many people believe that artificial intelligence is from This meeting began to become an academic field. Hong Xiaowen: The ultimate goal of AI is to become the guardian angel of man. Both McKinsey and Redi have won the highest award in this field successively for their pioneering outstanding contributions in the field of artificial intelligence. One of the reasons why he was elected as a foreign academician in the Chinese Academy of Engineering is to train a large number of outstanding Chinese scholars including Hong Xiaowen. “When I studied voice recognition with Reddy in the 1980s, I thought that the topic of artificial intelligence appealed to me because human intelligence is the greatest thing that we humans feel conscious of. How can we make the machine also have it?” It will not be forgotten that the thoughts he and the student's Lee Kai-fu considered at the time were not in agreement with the mentor Reid and his mentor McCarthy, but Reedy said to them, "I don't agree with this direction, but I support you to try." Sure enough, he made a very good result. Dr. Xiaowen said, “We also made a small contribution when Roger took the Turing Award. Tutor McCarthy also won the Turing Award. This is also a great honour. We There are Turing Awards for the traditions of teachers.” It was easy to see that “Shi Cheng” was a key word for Dr. Xiaowen in the first five hundred years of chess. Nearly every answer can see the influence of the teacher. For example, when it comes to the industry's views on the current stage of development of artificial intelligence, there are spring and fall. Dr. Xiaowen believes, “In fact, I don’t know whether it is spring or autumn. Everyone knows that artificial intelligence has experienced at least two In winter, I experienced one and a half winters myself, the end of the first winter and the second winter.Scientific research has never been done overnight, and even from the perspective of our fellow researchers, this is a long period. "Today, artificial intelligence is extremely red, and many people think this is what happened in recent years, but I would say that without these scholars - I really respect these early scholars - without them for 50 years, When we started to do such an effort 60 years ago, there would be absolutely no results today. Therefore, I very much hope that the media will report more on these scholars who have worked so hard from such an early stage and the direction that they have laid down for artificial intelligence." As for the last day we really did. Can go to artificial intelligence threshold, can be a machine and human intelligence is exactly the same, Dr. Xiaowen said prediction It's very dangerous to come, McCarthy's statement is 5 to 500 years, "My teacher Rudy's statement is also interesting: He will say it will take about 10 years, but he will immediately add, 'If the time goes by, you are at 30 I asked me years ago and my answer is 10 years. If you ask me 5 years ago, my answer is 10 years; until you ask me today, I would say 10 more years.'' Then I can even help him Answering, Dr. Xiaowen said that if you ask him after 10 years, he will certainly tell you that it may take another 10 years. This is close to the 500 years that McKinsey said. - 500 years? ! The last time I saw this time span was also related to artificial intelligence: When AlphaGo defeated South Korea's Li Shishi, some people mentioned that "there are only a few games in five hundred years, and there are not many years of fairy family," and it will be discussed if the machine is endowed with artificial intelligence. It will take away the fun of humans playing chess, and will eventually smash humanity in a lot of things in a machine-specific and simple and efficient way. In this regard, Dr. Xiaowen calmly answered that if the algorithm continues to be written by a person and the machine will only operate according to the algorithm provided by the human, then even the most advanced computer at the moment, in essence, a human abacus invented more than ten centuries ago. It is the same; even if the computer can accomplish some specific type of task, it does not mean that the computer can understand these tasks. Taking computer writing as an example, Microsoft is also studying, "It sounds amazing, but in short it is using so-called deep learning. First, train the machine and tell it what it is related to: When we first started looking for a lot The data was trained first. After training, today we took a new map and gave it to the deep learning machine. It will generate some words and use this word as an introduction; we will train it to learn the poems of ancient and modern Chinese and foreign languages ​​at the same time. Up, plus the relationship between words and words, to make a neural network, and then, as long as you start with a word, the machine can find out the word behind, and eventually become a poem, a song." "But people absolutely don't have to worry about it. There is absolutely no need to worry about losing their job. What do you say? For example, looking at a picture as a poem mentioned above, the machine can easily produce several titles, but I don't want to talk about writers. It is what most people see. These poems can also be quickly judged, 'Hey, I think this is better', and people who do this are already very valuable. After all, let the machine go through deep learning. A work is easy, but judging is always our long term for humanity. The machine does not know which work can impress us. We don't know what this work is talking about.” Only when humans understand the process of creativity can we It may teach the kind of creation unique to computer humans, Dr. Xiaowen said, but this is the hardest, and we may never be clear. “With the development of artificial intelligence, we can now use big data coupled with computers and mobile internet to do a lot of things (such as Microsoft’s refreshing of the dialogue speech recognition word error rate in October 2016, and letting the machine reach the level of the human stenographer). However, there is still a long way to go to achieve human wisdom. At present, logical tests are mainly used to emphasize rationality. Although this is in line with the definition of human wisdom, human beings have very rich emotions and emotions. Empathy, empathy, etc. It is precisely because of this that making artificial intelligence can continue to be a very worthy research - if we assume that within a few years the machine can achieve human intelligence, then this knowledge should be Capping, there is no need for further research." Scientists VS. Science fiction novelist since the road to artificial intelligence research far, as the president of the Institute how to deal with? For example, how do you determine which topic is worth doing and which one can be released? What are the characteristics of an ideal researcher? In 2017, Dr. Xiaowen served as Dean of Microsoft Research Asia for the 10th year and was the longest serving Dean of the Microsoft Research China Division since its establishment in November 1998. The former three dean are Li Kaifu and Zhang Yaqin respectively. Shen Xiangyang is a well-known name in the industry. On the day the Academy was founded, Kai-Fu Lee, the first dean, invited researchers from the US headquarters to include Hong Xiaowen. On that day, Bill Gates explained to the guests by video that his purpose for setting up a research institute in 1991 was to "dedicate themselves to pioneering advanced computer technology so that future computers would see, hear, speak, and learn, and make people It can communicate with computers just like people.” From then until now, Microsoft’s Asia Research Institute has been in high demand for 18 years. Speaking of management, Dr. Xiaowen believed that there were two aspects: First, there must be a central idea. "Mr. Bill Gates said that it is our vision. We believe in this direction, although we do not know how long it will take and how many winters it will take. , but we are really guilty about artificial intelligence - you can also say that it is stupid, but this kind of persistence is very important." The second is to have a long-term mentality, he said, "We certainly hope that researchers will produce results every year But if there is a researcher who says to you today: Don't bother me, give me two years, I will give you a result; two years later, he said, come out soon, give me another year; three years have passed, he said Hey, let's give me another six months... This is where the leaders of the Institute feel embarrassed, we have to make clear rewards, but it is not easy to judge the future.Perhaps it is fair to extend the time: For example, After 10 years, if most of my decisions in the past 10 years and the projects that I encourage have yielded results, it means that I am a good leader; if the projects I encourage are not successful, I do not encourage things. However, if the results are not good, then I will not be a good leader. The key is that even if you judge the future, it will be difficult to do some judgments. Then give the researcher the best environment, the freest culture, and hope that good things will happen." As for the ideal researcher candidates, "Some people say that our research institute is not smart. I think everyone in the world is very smart, but everyone's intelligence is used in different places. To be our researcher is to be I am often jesting about how different we are from science fiction novelists, and today many scientific research achievements have been written by science fiction novelists 50 years ago or even 100 years ago, but science fiction novelists dream only. The researcher not only has to dream, but also realizes his dream, even if he is likely to be able to achieve his goal.” - This sounds like an echo of his teacher, Rui Di, who received the Turing Award in March 1995. At the time, the title of Reidy was "To Dream the Possible Dream" and he wanted to realize the dream of artificial intelligence. Dr. Xiaowen also said, "For example, my tutor, Rui Di, and his tutor, McCarthy, spent their lifetime doing artificial intelligence research but failed to achieve their own ambiguity and to be a cognitive and perceptive machine, but they all insisted. Today, the people we are looking for should also be enthusiastic like this, in addition to having a certain amount of professional training and, more importantly, being able to adhere to them.The artificial intelligence research mentioned earlier has a history of 60 years, this year is the 61st year, there have been at least two The next winter, suddenly red is too red today, will there be another winter before? What else will happen? ... but researchers should not care about this, but must continue to move forward, this is the way of scientific research." After 30 years, what will happen to people and AI's daily vision after 30 years, Dr. Xiaowen said, “There is a very nice scene that is the ultimate assistant. Everyone has a ultimate personal assistant. It will always know you. What to do next, to help you prepare in advance - like my job, this meeting will see the next meeting, the next meeting there is another, what others are doing, some people I may I have seen only two sides. I will not know how to say the other person's name. Actually it is not only the name but also what I talked to him last time. This assistant will help me to prepare and return. Can be extended to personal life, such as when I am going to the airport to meet my mother, when should I start, how the road conditions, all these can really be seamless." Let everyone have a guardian angel, Dr. Xiaowen He said that he liked the description of teacher Reidy. "I don't know if it's going to be 30 years or not. Maybe I don't need to." As artificial intelligence will not allow machines to replace humans or even capture the world, "My answer is to believe in human wisdom. After all, technology is technology, and artificial intelligence is the same as mobile technology, internet technology, and PC technology.Sometimes I think people are not putting too much burden on artificial intelligence, as artificial intelligence is different from other technologies. The key is to people, and I completely believe in people's wisdom. I believe that the technologies and machines we developed are for us. Human beings are the smartest creatures in the world, and human intelligence will definitely use artificial intelligence on the right path to do things that can bring the greatest benefit to humanity. Some people may take these things to do bad things, but that is bad people. We have laws, and we have the wisdom to define and respond.” With Dr. Xiaowen’s high trust in human wisdom, he has emphasized the importance of independent thinking on several occasions. How should I train the ability to think independently, and the second question is whether designing an AI super assistant can take this into account. In addition to helping the machine to easily obtain information, the machine can also help reminders: Please judge for yourself, this news is real or fake? Dr. Xiaowen thinks this is a very necessary topic. "The first question, this is the reason why I will pay attention to education. I don't have a great solution, but one thing I can say is to pay attention to listening to different voices. "Especially when most people say this, polls show that most people are saying this, and that polls are also done systematically and scientifically, they should be more vigilant and pay attention to listening to other parts of the voice." After listening to it, it may not necessarily change judgments. But the more serious problem now is that those voices do not come out, polls only say that most people say that, and you do not actively look for those voices to listen and think independently. This is easy to form. Another kind of speech - I think no matter what kind of society, it will not be said that the majority of people think this is the case, and that should be the case. From this perspective, how to take care of the rights and interests of minority people and how to think independently In the future, it will become more important." As for the second question, he said, "You mentioned artificial intelligence, which is to a large extent use data. What is the data? Say garbage in, garbage out, if your data sampling is wrong or partial to one side, your results will be biased, so this second question about artificial intelligence is even harder, it's hard to know how you can perceive that you don't know Things." "Whether we are engaged in AI research or product development, we must care about how to make our products more secure and how to make our products not because of the data that caused us to think of ourselves This is the 80/20 principle: I do this to take care of the rights of most people, but don't forget the voice of a few people, because everyone is likely to become a minority in many issues, after all, people originally There is a variety of differences. This is even more difficult in the field of artificial intelligence. Sometimes when you finish it, it becomes a product and you have to use it. To wait for a problem, you may realize it." Therefore, the future of mankind The hope is that more people can do independent thinking. "If I don't do research later, I want to do education, and unlike most people who are going to college to teach computers, I think what I think is how to Computational thinking and independent thinking are brought to primary and secondary schools because the essence of education is to prepare people for the future. I really want to do it.” So to say we should be more confident in the future or more worried because we don’t know now Is there enough someone who can think independently to meet the requirements of building an AI super assistant? Unexpectedly, from the point of view of artificial intelligence scholars to discuss the arduous challenges of the future, Dr. Xiaowen can still calmly answer. “I am an optimistic person. I think the future is better. I believe most people are like me in the new one. The year will surely go further than last year - for example, I mentioned another kind of monologue I did not think so before - people must make mistakes, but we must learn from mistakes. You can't make mistakes, but you want to make fewer mistakes later and even do things better." “This is why I believe AI+HI (human wisdom) = super intelligence,” he said.

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