Different from the high-tech threshold of the sensor industry, the technology threshold of the LED industry is relatively low, so more and more enterprises enter the industry, which eventually leads to the same as the photovoltaic industry in the past - the overcapacity is serious, and the price war between enterprises is big. After a round of shuffling, many companies closed down.
Recently, the "Daily Economic News" reporter learned that the LED chip in the three years from 2012 to 2015, the price dropped to one-tenth of the original.
As the second largest LED chip manufacturer in China, Huacan Optoelectronics (300323, SZ) experienced a pain in the last round of sharp price declines. However, the current price of chips has remained relatively stable, and competition among enterprises has also stabilized.
It is worth mentioning that the government's subsidies to LED companies have made many companies enter the industry not for the purpose of developing LEDs, but for subsidies, which is one of the reasons for the overcapacity in the industry.
Liu Can, president of Huacan Optoelectronics, said that as the industry competition stabilizes, several companies will eventually become the largest, and government-level subsidies will be tightened, which will subsidize those companies that can participate in international competition. Those companies that cannot receive subsidies will gradually withdraw from the stage in the next round of competition.
Industry competition tends to be stable
As a leading LED chip supplier in China, Huacan Optoelectronics has become the second largest LED epitaxial wafer manufacturer in China and one of the world's leading LED epitaxial wafer manufacturers.
After 2000, the LED industry experienced rapid development. LED companies such as Huacan Optoelectronics and Sanan Optoelectronics (600703, SH) also took advantage of the development of the industry, from the original small enterprise to today's LED listed company.
Due to the low technical threshold of the LED industry, many funds have entered the industry, which eventually led to the formation of overcapacity in the same way as the PV industry.
In order to break through, companies began to compete in disorderly price wars, which reached its peak in 2015. According to data from the High-Tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII), more than 20% and about 5,000 LED-related companies have withdrawn from the market in 2015.
Among them, as the LED chip industry, it has also experienced the competition of price wars, and the industry has undergone a round of reshuffle. According to the reporter's understanding, there are currently about 15 domestic LED chip companies operating normally. These 15 companies are from the 50 companies in 2010 and have remained after the price war.
Liu Wei said that the price of LED chips has dropped 10 times in the past three years. Although the cost has decreased, it is far from enough compared with the price decline. Therefore, LED companies have a hard time. "There were 50% to 60% of the original hair. Interest rates, almost no profit in the first quarter of this year, now the price of each piece is about 200 yuan, there is some profit margin."
In Liu Wei's view, the LED industry competition will continue, but this kind of competition will tend to be stable, because the price war between enterprises is not large. In the chip, Sanan Optoelectronics, Huacan Optoelectronics and other companies are expanding production, but the amount of each family is not large, expansion may lead to overcapacity, but like the price of previous years, the possibility of losing order is not great.
Industrial oligarchs will form
LED industry researcher Zhang Kang told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that "the current competition in the LED industry has evolved from the previous disorderly competition to the current orderly competition, and the price space has been reduced to a minimum. Although it may be followed There will be price competition, but there will be no bidding. Now there are fewer and fewer companies with capital to cut prices."
In the global macroeconomic downturn and the lack of LED backlight and display demand, Sanan Optoelectronics, Huacan Optoelectronics, Ganzhao Optoelectronics, Aoyang Shunchang and other corporate chip capacity expansion against the trend, further intensified the LED chip market competition, chips The price war of the manufacturers will intensify and the industry consolidation will continue.
In addition, the growth rate of LED lighting demand has slowed down markedly, and the competition in the industry has intensified. As the most upstream chip link in the LED lighting industry chain, the pressure is increasing.
According to the statistics of the High-Tech Industrial Research Institute of LED Research (GGII), the total size of China's LED industry is expected to reach 396.7 billion yuan in 2015, an increase of 15.1% year-on-year. The output value of LED chips reached 13 billion yuan, an increase of 8% over the previous year. However, the output of LED chips has increased by 60% year-on-year.
At present, there are 15 domestic LED chip companies, but this is not the final market structure, and the reshuffle will continue.
Liu Wei told the reporter of "Daily Economic News", "Although the price war has not been reduced, the price competition will continue. After the next round of reshuffle, these 15 companies may eventually have five Left and right, more concentrated."
Liu Wei further analyzed that "the current ranking is Sanan Optoelectronics, accounting for 30%, and our second, accounting for more than 10%. Three years later, two monopoly will be formed, estimated The market share is about 70%, our proportion may be around 30%, and the first ratio is about 40%."
Government subsidies may be tightened
As an emerging industry of the year, the LED industry developed at a high speed, and government subsidies played an important role.
According to public information, China has subsidized the LED lighting industry since 2009, and the subsidy is very large. In 2013, the LED industry ushered in a policy spring, from the State Council to the local government have introduced policies to promote the LED industry. At present, government subsidies still account for half of the performance of many companies.
According to statistics, Sanan Optoelectronics, a “subsidy brother†in the LED industry, received various subsidies of over RMB 3 billion from 2010 to 2015. In 2010, Sanan Optoelectronics received a total of more than 700 million yuan of government subsidies, accounting for 60% of 2010 net profit; in 2011, it accounted for 86%; in 2012, it accounted for 60%, accounting for 2013 The ratio is 45.7%, and the proportion in 2014 is still around 50%. In 2015, it accounted for 28%.
In addition, Dehao Runda (002005, SZ) is also one of the beneficiaries of government subsidies. From 2009 to the first half of 2014, Dehao Runda's government subsidies for the current profit and loss were 8,100,300 yuan, 265,560,400 yuan, 31,026,400 yuan, 22,422,900 yuan, 23,023,900 yuan and 64,430,800 yuan.
Liu Wei said, "From the perspective of government subsidies from two perspectives, in the early stage of industry development, government subsidies are to promote the development of the industry. But it is painful for individual enterprises. Since the country subsidizes so much money, there are many subjects involved in the competition. The market cannot carry so many subjects, and the competition will be very cruel. After the rest of the competition, the cost and management advantages will be highlighted."
In the eyes of the industry, after a round of shuffling, the target of government subsidies will change, and will not subsidize as much as before. It will subsidize those enterprises that can become the top few in the industry. Some small and medium-sized enterprises want to take subsidies again. It is unlikely. Moreover, government subsidies have begun to decline and the subsidy has narrowed.
Liu Wei said, "From the perspective of the main players, the government has also seen this stage clearly. The remaining companies will participate in international competition. The government subsidies will replenish these enterprises. This is a healthy subsidy. The LED industry competition will continue. However, the situation will not be so fierce, it will be stable, and the number of companies that can cut prices will be reduced. Therefore, the price will stabilize and the performance of LED companies will be further improved."
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