After being destroyed by radio and television, LeTV was forced to shift from "content ecology" to "UI ecology."



On January 27, 2014, LeTV.com (300104.SZ) hit a record high with a price of 443.38 yuan (Note: This article uses the post-recovery price in a unified manner to distribute dividends and the price before the share issuance). On January 27, 2015, LeTV reached a record high of 452.26 yuan, and its market value exceeded 46 billion yuan. But is LeTV today one year ago?

What is LeTV's gene?

Prior to the listing in 2010, LeTV's main role was China Unicom's Content Provider. According to the IPO documents, 71.82% of LeTV's on-demand service revenue in FY09 was obtained from telecom operators such as China Unicom, China Unicom's new video and linkage advantages.

Since 2008, Youku, potatoes and other video sites have begun to grow wildly, and piracy has been regarded as justified. The telecom operators such as China Unicom, mobile, etc. are high standards and strict requirements for CP, and if the copyright is flawed, they will not be paid. LeTV has therefore purchased a large amount of copyrighted content. As of April 2010, it had 2,324 movies copyrights and 43,097 TV drama rights.

Since 2009, the online video industry has been caught in an unprecedented copyright dispute. Each video site serves as both the plaintiff and defendant. Litigation battles took place, capital battles began again, and well-known websites have changed their minds to declare their “impurity”, and they paid for the purchase of copyright. The copyright of the film and television drama network soared ten times during the year. The copyrights and purchasing power that were purchased at a low price in the early years became an important capital of LeTV. According to the prospectus document, "the company has established a copyright trading relationship with more than 100 copyright owners and copyright agencies, established a long-term and stable cooperative relationship with strong movie and television drama producers and distributors, and has a variety of procurement channels, which are convenient and smooth."

In fiscal year 2012, LeTV.com's distribution of copyright to video sites accounted for 48% of revenue.

Among many video sites, LeTV is able to become a dark horse and is first listed on the A-share market. Good economic results (FY2009, LeTV revenue 146 million, net profit of 44.48 million yuan. Youku, iqiyi and other video sites are still losing money) is on the one hand (A shares are not allowed to lose the company listed), the contents of "Gen Zhengmiao Red is the deciding factor.

Based on high-quality content, LeTV's traffic has grown steadily. According to the 2013 annual report, LeTV's average daily UV is about 26 million, and the average daily PV is 140 million. Although it is equivalent to only one-half of Youku Potato, it is already in the first camp. In 2013, LeTV Advertising revenue reached 839 million.

LeTV has a media gene and is good at producing and operating content. The success of LeTV can be used as evidence. In December 2011, Jia Yueting founded LeTV Film (a brother company of LeTV) and quickly achieved impressive results. In 2013, a total of 9 films were invested and distributed, with over a billion at the box office, making it one of the top three movie companies in China. In 2014, LeTV Films has produced or released returns, Small Times 3, 3 death squads, total box office nearly 3 billion, accounting for more than 10% of the country's total box office.

The theory of genes is a bit mysterious, but Ali did social networking and Tencent did so for many years. The talent, technology, and funds are not lacking, and they do not believe in evil.

LeTV content ecosystem is "waste".

As we all know, Last year, LeTV's market value exceeded 45 billion yuan, which is not based on website traffic (on the basis of mobile Tudou Tudou is LeTV, market value is equivalent to 30 billion yuan) but the "ecological circle concept."

When it comes to the ecosystem, the only successful person in history is only Apple. The successful ecosystem includes at least three parts: software, hardware, and content. Apple has closed software, the ultimate hardware, Apple Store and payment system to facilitate the hundreds of thousands of developers. Other companies, whether it is the old-fashioned IBM or the unbeatable Microsoft, no matter whether the aggressive Samsung or the future-oriented Google, there is no hardware or content, there is no real ecosystem.

LeTV's vertically integrated "platform + content + terminal + application" eco-model is bound to be inspired by Apple (not to admit it does not matter Kazakhstan). Relatively speaking, LeTV's video content is a strong point, and Super TV is selected in the hardware (even the terminal) (the set-top box is only a small role).

According to Jia Yueting's vision, LeTV will receive the “hardware+content+advertisement+application” four-fold income, which will enable Super TV prices to be only half the price of similar products and double the performance, smashing the price bottom line and subverting the TV industry. .

In early 2014, LeTV's 45 billion valuation was a three-point reality and a seven-point deficiency. Three points are actually content, and seven points have two meanings: First, Super TV has just started (only 300,000 units were sold at the time); Second, even if Super TV is sold to tens of millions of units, can it be similar to iPhone in Apple? The role of the ecosystem is completely unknown. The author believes that the stock price of LeTV was already overestimated.

Lei Jun is a more loyal follower of Jobs, Xiaomi is also starting from mobile phones and software, and then invest in iQiyi, Youku potatoes rich content. It can be said that music as the origin of the ecosystem as the origin, into the hardware; millet ecosystem is based on hardware, to attract content owners to join.

There was a theory at the time: TVs in the living room were the center of home entertainment. Allowing your smart TV to occupy the living room is like opening a "random door". It can not only generate revenue through free content and advertising, but also introduce paid content, games, and even selling crabs and selling alcohol. It seems that LeTV, which focuses on super TV, should indeed obtain a higher valuation. No wonder millet also launched a smart TV, but the main attack is still a mobile phone.

Returning to the past to ponder, Jia Yueting has a deep meaning to choose TV. Because LeTV's core advantage is video content. If the importance of video content is 100% for televisions, only 30% for mobile phones. Therefore, the TV is the terminal that can best play LeTV's core capabilities.

As we all know later stories, we can only say that people are not as good as they are. If there is no big breakthrough in policy, LeTV will not be allowed to directly enter the living room even if it sells 10 million super TVs. In layman's terms, LeTV has been stopped by content as its core ecosystem. At the beginning of 2015, the super TV that should have released a new generation of products was gone. LeTV has thrown out smart phones and the LeUI system Auto.

From "content ecology" will shift to "UI ecology"?

Many Android mobile phone brands will customize the native Android system, on the one hand, for differentiated competition, and on the other hand, use their own services to replace Google's services in order to obtain follow-up business benefits. Modifications and customizations to the Android native system are concentrated on the distinctive UI (user interface). In the case of little difference in hardware performance and price, the struggle for domestic mobile phone brands often reflects the struggle of UI. Milli's MIUI has a certain leading edge, but Huawei's EMUI has the ability to fight with it. Meizu, hammers, and cool also have their own fans. With a unique UI, mobile phone manufacturers can capture one user each time they sell a mobile phone.

Millet's current $45 billion valuation is five cents and five cents. Five points is that Xiaomi has successfully obtained a large number of users (in 2013 and 2014, Xiaomi's handset shipments were 18.7 million units and 61.12 million units respectively). The five-point imaginary is the ability of Xiaomi’s ecological realisation to be proven. In 2013, Samsung mobile phones shipped 320 million units; in 2014, Samsung’s mobile phone shipments still ranked first in the world. However, Samsung did not form an "ecosphere" like Apple. # Wish Xiaomi success? #

To play the UI ecosystem, you have to build your own hardware. Otherwise, what else would someone else give you as a dutiful son? Zhou Hongyi wanted to make a fuss about how to make other people use their mobile phones to build mobile phones and use Qihoo 360's applications to create so-called custom machines. But no one was more foolish than him. Eventually Zhou Hongyi had no choice but to take shares in the Cool Gods and make mobile phones under the South, but the best time has been missed.

After Levin took the content as the origin of the ecosystem and was destroyed by radio and television, it was forced to shift from the content ecology to the UI ecology. It is also inevitable that mobile phones will be built. Tomorrow (January 28), LeTV will release three mobile phones, priced at around RMB 1,000, RMB 2,000 and RMB 3,000 respectively. Luo Yonghao can make mobile phones. Of course, LeTV can. However, why does Zhou Hongyi spend 400 million U.S. dollars in exchange for a 45% stake in Cool Gods? Why don’t you invest in LeTV?

If LeTV has a 50% chance of success, the LeUI system Auto Edition cannot comment. Because of the currently disclosed functions: multiple interaction methods (multi-touch, somatosensory motion recognition, voice control), integrated map navigation, social networking, Internet car service (violating enquiries, maintenance appointments, etc.) and car entertainment are not enough Integrate the automotive industry vertically. At least have to allow BYD to envy Beiqi's place, voice control glass lift these Wang Chuanfu can not do?

Today, smart driving aids have made many advancements and have spread from high-end cars to mid-range cars, such as automatic parking, lane keeping, brake assistance, pedestrian detection, intelligent identification of traffic signs, and so on. Integrate all the auxiliary systems to achieve the ultimate, the driver's entire function is unmanned. As of the beginning of 2015, Google's modified Lexus has conducted more than 1.1 million kilometers of automated driving experiments.

In July 2014, Baidu also launched the "Driverless Vehicle" project, which was undertaken by Baidu Deep Learning Institute. The unmanned vehicle will be equipped with radar, camera, and satellite positioning systems that can identify traffic signs and automatically collect traffic information. The information collected by many vehicles (speed, aspects, road conditions, etc.) is uploaded to the data center and the best driving route can be planned for each vehicle in real time.

Google and Baidu will not build engines and transmissions and will cooperate with existing auto factories. If five years later, let Beiqi choose to cooperate with Baidu or LeTV, what will happen?

Super TV is not yet alive and well. It is surprising that LeTV has rushed to historical highs with two concepts that are not directly related to itself (mobile phones and car projects are operated by LeTV Holdings).

However, today's LeTV is different from a year ago. There was still three points of dry goods in the content ecosystem that LeTV had a year ago. Today, there is probably only one point in the UI ecosystem.
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